[Goose]

Kharkiv has been under daily artillery fire since the beginning of the war. If Ukraine could push Russia out of artillery range (which seems like it would be very difficult and might even require a push into Russian territory), that would be a big boost to the safety of Ukrainian civilians and might allow Kharkiv to come back to life in a way reminiscent of Kiev. To me, that seems like the big prize, more than lengthening GLOC to Izyum, which looks like it can be accessed from a number of rail lines. But as per usual, this is not close to my field of expertise.

The area where they have achieved a breakthrough is really south east of the city. To push Russia out of artillery range of Kharkiv would probably need a bigger push northeast, but that is closer to Russia and better fortified.

Yes, I think we all agree that is a much bigger ask, and with all the missile bombardment Russia is doing best case there would still be some danger. One can hope.

This seems to have been a planned offensive, or at least Russian sources indicate that's likely. Ukraine has backed it up and continued to push north and east from their breakthrough, taking other settlements in the area. If they can make it to Kupyansk, the Russian position in Izyum would be in big trouble, and the Russian gains in the Donbas would be at risk of evaporating.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/15673...XN7ZEKWvrQ

I am sure it was planned. Exactly what was planned is of course unknown. However, as I have pointed out, the MO of both Russia and Ukraine has been to attack everywhere and reinforce success. That may be what we are seeing in this case. I still am of the opinion Ukraine will be careful. They have found a "crack", probably initially by intensive patrolling and by special forces operations. They are exploiting it. If Russia doesn't respond very forcefully, the Ukrainians will keep going. However, they don't want to get themselves in a situation where they too could be cut off. It is good to see they are going east as well as south IMHO.

I do think it improbable the Russian gains in the Donbas are generally at risk. As has been pointed out there are plenty of GLOCs from Russia proper into Donbas. While losing the shortest route is definitely a "bad" thing, it needn't be fatal. However such a loss does require a response. Russia can't just sit there, they are going to need a defense. If they don't (or can't) put together a response, Ukraine will keep coming. Reinforce success.

A big question is the current location and intended destination of the so-called "3rd Army Corps" recently sent to Ukraine. Are they going to the Kherson Oblast or to "finish" the battle in the Donbas. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/20...f87bb14d90
While everybody is skeptical of the combat effectiveness of this force, where it goes might tell us a lot about Russia's plans. If they go towards Donetsk Oblast, Putin is still living in a dreamworld. If they go to Kherson Oblast, that means the Russians recognize they have a serious problem there and intend to defend. This could expose the new force to significant attrition before it actually fully engages. I can't imagine at this point Russia would commit such a force on the west bank. If it goes to Kupyansk, that is the response.

.....

US trained the Ukrainians who used truck mounted Harpoons to take out two Russian ships. Not a surprise but interesting.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/...ys/376808/

The statement from the pentagon is weird. They appear to be saying the training was in the US and then they say "Oh no, it wasn't in the US". I am not sure I believe that. In any case, it doesn't matter IMHO. The "neat" thing is that the US replicated the shipboard environment by just putting everything (including power sources) on two flatbeds. We have all the drawings, connectors and cables to do that. It may be bigger than one wants, but it is like Aegis Ashore. Preserve all the interfaces, don't worry about it being too big. Very good idea and I hope we sent several such kludges.

[Goose]

Kharkiv has been under daily artillery fire since the beginning of the war. If Ukraine could push Russia out of artillery range (which seems like it would be very difficult and might even require a push into Russian territory), that would be a big boost to the safety of Ukrainian civilians and might allow Kharkiv to come back to life in a way reminiscent of Kiev. To me, that seems like the big prize, more than lengthening GLOC to Izyum, which looks like it can be accessed from a number of rail lines. But as per usual, this is not close to my field of expertise.

The area where they have achieved a breakthrough is really south east of the city. To push Russia out of artillery range of Kharkiv would probably need a bigger push northeast, but that is closer to Russia and better fortified.

Yes, I think we all agree that is a much bigger ask, and with all the missile bombardment Russia is doing best case there would still be some danger. One can hope.

This seems to have been a planned offensive, or at least Russian sources indicate that's likely. Ukraine has backed it up and continued to push north and east from their breakthrough, taking other settlements in the area. If they can make it to Kupyansk, the Russian position in Izyum would be in big trouble, and the Russian gains in the Donbas would be at risk of evaporating.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/15673...XN7ZEKWvrQ

I am sure it was planned. Exactly what was planned is of course unknown. However, as I have pointed out, the MO of both Russia and Ukraine has been to attack everywhere and reinforce success. That may be what we are seeing in this case. I still am of the opinion Ukraine will be careful. They have found a "crack", probably initially by intensive patrolling and by special forces operations. They are exploiting it. If Russia doesn't respond very forcefully, the Ukrainians will keep going. However, they don't want to get themselves in a situation where they too could be cut off. It is good to see they are going east as well as south IMHO.

I do think it improbable the Russian gains in the Donbas are generally at risk. As has been pointed out there are plenty of GLOCs from Russia proper into Donbas. While losing the shortest route is definitely a "bad" thing, it needn't be fatal. However such a loss does require a response. Russia can't just sit there, they are going to need a defense. If they don't (or can't) put together a response, Ukraine will keep coming. Reinforce success.

A big question is the current location and intended destination of the so-called "3rd Army Corps" recently sent to Ukraine. Are they going to the Kherson Oblast or to "finish" the battle in the Donbas. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/20...f87bb14d90
While everybody is skeptical of the combat effectiveness of this force, where it goes might tell us a lot about Russia's plans. If they go towards Donetsk Oblast, Putin is still living in a dreamworld. If they go to Kherson Oblast, that means the Russians recognize they have a serious problem there and intend to defend. This could expose the new force to significant attrition before it actually fully engages. I can't imagine at this point Russia would commit such a force on the west bank. If it goes to Kupyansk, that is the response.

.....

US trained the Ukrainians who used truck mounted Harpoons to take out two Russian ships. Not a surprise but interesting.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/...ys/376808/

The statement from the pentagon is weird. They appear to be saying the training was in the US and then they say "Oh no, it wasn't in the US". I am not sure I believe that. In any case, it doesn't matter IMHO. The "neat" thing is that the US replicated the shipboard environment by just putting everything (including power sources) on two flatbeds. We have all the drawings, connectors and cables to do that. It may be bigger than one wants, but it is like Aegis Ashore. Preserve all the interfaces, don't worry about it being too big. Very good idea and I hope we sent several such kludges.