[Goose]

This is shaping up to be a pretty big deal.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-t...yURL_share

If Ukraine can seize or eve threaten Russian GLOC to Izium, that is a very big opportunity for them.

Is the move out of Kharkiv a target of opportunity enabled by Russian redeployment of forces to the South to defend Kherson, or was this all part of the strategy?  While I recognize that in this day and age, it is impossible to have true operational secrecy, I always wondered whether the Ukrainians were too open about their intentions in the south, and now I wonder whether that might not have been deliberate.

BC

Obviously I don't know what Ukraine's intentions or capabilities around Kharkiv actually are. The unit they have surrounded is basically a militarized SWAT team. It doesn't have any organic heavy weapons. I am sure the Russians figured that was OK because occupying a village that is already taken shouldn't require them. The fact they got themselves cut off is bad tactical planning on their part. We now will find out if Russia has available a quick reaction force to relieve the situation. If Russia does not, that is telling. I don't think this was a "trap". I think Russia is stretched thin and Ukraine took advantage.

The actual importance of this event is totally contingent on what resources Ukraine has available to take advantage of the situation and how thin Russia actually is. Ukraine is a long way from cutting the Russian's GLOC toward the south. Ukraine is probably also well aware of what they can and cannot risk. However, I am sure Ukraine will try to exploit as much as possible. If Russia doesn't respond, it could get "interesting". One would think Russia must ensure it's GLOCs are safe. I am pretty sure this wasn't a "planned" event by Ukraine and I am also pretty sure they will be cautious. They last thing Ukraine wants is a long salient into Russian held territory that they must defend. Ukraine will make sure it can hold what it takes or they won't do it.

As far as Ukraine "telegraphing" their intentions in Kherson, I think it wasn't intended to deceive the Russians. While Putin is an idiot, many Russian military personnel are not and they can read a map. Kherson is the place Ukraine can do the most harm with the smallest advance. Ukraine could take back 90% of Luhansk and not really injure Russia's tactical position much. The open terrain in Kherson makes banging away with artillery as a defensive tactic less effective because the attack need not follow roads. It can come from anywhere. Kherson is also pretty solidly "Ukrainian" so there is a 5th column for Russia to deal with. A victory there cuts off supply to the advance along the south coast towards Odessa and threatens Crimea. It is a "no brainer". That is why I am a bit surprised that Russia hasn't committed more forces to retaining it. They apparently think there is enough already there. Relying on the ability to move assets there at the last minute is risky because all Ukraine has to do is block the road for a while and it will be too late. Ukraine has shown they can do unexpected things, so if I were a Russian, I would have taken more precautions.

[Goose]

This is shaping up to be a pretty big deal.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-t...yURL_share

If Ukraine can seize or eve threaten Russian GLOC to Izium, that is a very big opportunity for them.

Is the move out of Kharkiv a target of opportunity enabled by Russian redeployment of forces to the South to defend Kherson, or was this all part of the strategy?  While I recognize that in this day and age, it is impossible to have true operational secrecy, I always wondered whether the Ukrainians were too open about their intentions in the south, and now I wonder whether that might not have been deliberate.

BC

Obviously I don't know what Ukraine's intentions or capabilities around Kharkiv actually are. The unit they have surrounded is basically a militarized SWAT team. It doesn't have any organic heavy weapons. I am sure the Russians figured that was OK because occupying a village that is already taken shouldn't require them. The fact they got themselves cut off is bad tactical planning on their part. We now will find out if Russia has available a quick reaction force to relieve the situation. If Russia does not, that is telling. I don't think this was a "trap". I think Russia is stretched thin and Ukraine took advantage.

The actual importance of this event is totally contingent on what resources Ukraine has available to take advantage of the situation and how thin Russia actually is. Ukraine is a long way from cutting the Russian's GLOC toward the south. Ukraine is probably also well aware of what they can and cannot risk. However, I am sure Ukraine will try to exploit as much as possible. If Russia doesn't respond, it could get "interesting". One would think Russia must ensure it's GLOCs are safe. I am pretty sure this wasn't a "planned" event by Ukraine and I am also pretty sure they will be cautious. They last thing Ukraine wants is a long salient into Russian held territory that they must defend. Ukraine will make sure it can hold what it takes or they won't do it.

As far as Ukraine "telegraphing" their intentions in Kherson, I think it wasn't intended to deceive the Russians. While Putin is an idiot, many Russian military personnel are not and they can read a map. Kherson is the place Ukraine can do the most harm with the smallest advance. Ukraine could take back 90% of Luhansk and not really injure Russia's tactical position much. The open terrain in Kherson makes banging away with artillery as a defensive tactic less effective because the attack need not follow roads. It can come from anywhere. Kherson is also pretty solidly "Ukrainian" so there is a 5th column for Russia to deal with. A victory there cuts off supply to the advance along the south coast towards Odessa and threatens Crimea. It is a "no brainer". That is why I am a bit surprised that Russia hasn't committed more forces to retaining it. They apparently think there is enough already there. Relying on the ability to move assets there at the last minute is risky because all Ukraine has to do is block the road for a while and it will be too late. Ukraine has shown they can do unexpected things, so if I were a Russian, I would have taken more precautions.