[Goose]

Yes, that would be pretty much the standard way to get stuff from Eastern Russia to Western.  My concern would be how much stuff can they move and how fast will it get there.  That is a several day trip at best.  Then they have to unload it and move it closer to the FEBA.  I would assume that munition trains will stop some distance East of the FEBA and then be shipped in smaller amounts by train and truck.  I think the Ukraine will have a pretty good idea of when shipments are coming and will make a concerted effort to interdict them.  The big question is can they?  How much do they have currently in stock and available in the area of current operations.  If it is a lot, then the transit time is not that big a deal, if they are truly short of ammo, then that is something else.

I think Russia has "plenty" of ammo (except possibly 122mm) available in European Russia. They have undoubtedly been shipping it in from all over Russia. Some significant quantity of the N. Korean deliveries will probably go to replacing stuff already sent west. For sure the train trip will take a while, probably several weeks. It will not exactly be a Z train :-). Russia's real problem now is the last 50-100 km of delivery. That is also the problem for fuel, food, and in many places water. Ukraine probably knows what is on which trains and has had some success selectively attacking large shipments. In some places they now have the rail lines within artillery range. However, the other sources of "friction" that Ukraine has put in place are the ones doing the most damage. We shall see to what extent that is "enough" in the next few weeks.

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Looks like while all eyes are on Kherson, Ukraine has made a surprise advance near Kharkiv, encircling the town of Balakliya. Further advances here would put Russian GLOC lines to Izyum at risk.

https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1...4LqjwOm5KQ

I have heard bubblings of big news this morning on Twitter, I think this might be what it was about. Zelensky has hinted that other fronts might become more active.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-...gy-1740177

This is important because it further complicates the Russian decision tree and potentially stretches them even thinner. A bunch of Russian POWs, especially elite units, is a good thing too. If they can surrender, anyone can.

[Goose]

Yes, that would be pretty much the standard way to get stuff from Eastern Russia to Western.  My concern would be how much stuff can they move and how fast will it get there.  That is a several day trip at best.  Then they have to unload it and move it closer to the FEBA.  I would assume that munition trains will stop some distance East of the FEBA and then be shipped in smaller amounts by train and truck.  I think the Ukraine will have a pretty good idea of when shipments are coming and will make a concerted effort to interdict them.  The big question is can they?  How much do they have currently in stock and available in the area of current operations.  If it is a lot, then the transit time is not that big a deal, if they are truly short of ammo, then that is something else.

I think Russia has "plenty" of ammo (except possibly 122mm) available in European Russia. They have undoubtedly been shipping it in from all over Russia. Some significant quantity of the N. Korean deliveries will probably go to replacing stuff already sent west. For sure the train trip will take a while, probably several weeks. It will not exactly be a Z train :-). Russia's real problem now is the last 50-100 km of delivery. That is also the problem for fuel, food, and in many places water. Ukraine probably knows what is on which trains and has had some success selectively attacking large shipments. In some places they now have the rail lines within artillery range. However, the other sources of "friction" that Ukraine has put in place are the ones doing the most damage. We shall see to what extent that is "enough" in the next few weeks.

---

Looks like while all eyes are on Kherson, Ukraine has made a surprise advance near Kharkiv, encircling the town of Balakliya. Further advances here would put Russian GLOC lines to Izyum at risk.

https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1...4LqjwOm5KQ

I have heard bubblings of big news this morning on Twitter, I think this might be what it was about. Zelensky has hinted that other fronts might become more active.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-...gy-1740177

This is important because it further complicates the Russian decision tree and potentially stretches them even thinner. A bunch of Russian POWs, especially elite units, is a good thing too. If they can surrender, anyone can.