[81alum]

It all depends on being able to enforce the restrictions on insurance and preventing the Russians from cheating the sanctions.



If the restrictions can’t be enforced over insurance, the scheme will collapse for the same reason any cartel will collapse.  If the price cap is set at $50, there are plenty of willing buyers without scruples (India, China) who will be happy to buy it for $55.  Russian oil will continue to sell at a discount, but probably at a substantially higher price than the cap.



How, where that’s how evading sanctions comes to pass.



https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articl...#xj4y7vzkg

Chinese imports of Malaysian crude oil have surged to almost 800,000 barrels a day — more than what the Southeast Asian nation actually produces. The waters of Malaysia are a hot spot for ship-to-ship transfers, allowing unscrupulous traders to mix crude from other origins and rebrand it as Malaysian. The actual origin likely is a mix of market pariah states Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

BC

I don't follow these events with the detailed knowledge of some of you, but this NYT article made an impression on me 3 days ago--making me wonder how well sanctions of any kind will work in the future.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/03/world...l-law.html

How Fake GPS Coordinates Are Leading to Lawlessness on the High Seas

A technology enabling the transmission of fake locations to carry out murky or even illegal business operations could have profound implications for the enforcement of international law.

"...But over the past year, Windward, a large maritime data company that provides research to the United Nations, has uncovered more than 500 cases of ships manipulating their satellite navigation systems to hide their locations. The vessels carry out the deception by adopting a technology that until recently was confined to the world’s most advanced navies. The technology, in essence, replicates the effect of a VPN cellphone app, making a ship appear to be in one place, while physically being elsewhere."

[81alum]

It all depends on being able to enforce the restrictions on insurance and preventing the Russians from cheating the sanctions.



If the restrictions can’t be enforced over insurance, the scheme will collapse for the same reason any cartel will collapse.  If the price cap is set at $50, there are plenty of willing buyers without scruples (India, China) who will be happy to buy it for $55.  Russian oil will continue to sell at a discount, but probably at a substantially higher price than the cap.



How, where that’s how evading sanctions comes to pass.



https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articl...#xj4y7vzkg

Chinese imports of Malaysian crude oil have surged to almost 800,000 barrels a day — more than what the Southeast Asian nation actually produces. The waters of Malaysia are a hot spot for ship-to-ship transfers, allowing unscrupulous traders to mix crude from other origins and rebrand it as Malaysian. The actual origin likely is a mix of market pariah states Iran, Venezuela and Russia.

BC

I don't follow these events with the detailed knowledge of some of you, but this NYT article made an impression on me 3 days ago--making me wonder how well sanctions of any kind will work in the future.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/03/world...l-law.html

How Fake GPS Coordinates Are Leading to Lawlessness on the High Seas

A technology enabling the transmission of fake locations to carry out murky or even illegal business operations could have profound implications for the enforcement of international law.

"...But over the past year, Windward, a large maritime data company that provides research to the United Nations, has uncovered more than 500 cases of ships manipulating their satellite navigation systems to hide their locations. The vessels carry out the deception by adopting a technology that until recently was confined to the world’s most advanced navies. The technology, in essence, replicates the effect of a VPN cellphone app, making a ship appear to be in one place, while physically being elsewhere."