[Goose]

This feels a bit like the offensive by the Russians in the Donbas earlier in the summer.Slow progress, but progress nonetheless.  I’m starting to think that the Ukrainians might be able to capture Kherson.



BC

Alike in pace perhaps. Different in method. Ukraine isn't using massive artillery barrages to flatten the villages they have retaken. They don't have enough artillery to do that and have no desire to destroy what they wish to return to Ukraine. They are cutting off and outflanking Russian defenders who then retreat. Ukraine is also putting pressure on the GLOCs of the Russians many km behind their lines with HIMARS, air strikes, drone strikes, and "special military operations". As long as Ukraine is in a strong enough tactical position to continue doing that and as long as Russia is willing to retreat, it will keep working. At some point those conditions may not hold.

It may well be that these conditions will continue to the point of liberation of Kherson city. There have been indications in the press that from Russia's (Putin's) point of view, that would certainly be  "a bridge too far :-)". We don't know that though, and they may just bug out. Their tactical situation there wasn't the best from day 1 and has deteriorated greatly in the last couple of months. Russia seems to still be undecided about defending Kherson (and everything else on that side of the river) and an offensive in Donetsk. It appears they may have decided not to decide and will attempt both. We shall see what happens. I am rooting for a collapse in Kherson Oblast (not just the city). If that happens it is Katy bar the Door for Crimea.

[Goose]

This feels a bit like the offensive by the Russians in the Donbas earlier in the summer.Slow progress, but progress nonetheless.  I’m starting to think that the Ukrainians might be able to capture Kherson.



BC

Alike in pace perhaps. Different in method. Ukraine isn't using massive artillery barrages to flatten the villages they have retaken. They don't have enough artillery to do that and have no desire to destroy what they wish to return to Ukraine. They are cutting off and outflanking Russian defenders who then retreat. Ukraine is also putting pressure on the GLOCs of the Russians many km behind their lines with HIMARS, air strikes, drone strikes, and "special military operations". As long as Ukraine is in a strong enough tactical position to continue doing that and as long as Russia is willing to retreat, it will keep working. At some point those conditions may not hold.

It may well be that these conditions will continue to the point of liberation of Kherson city. There have been indications in the press that from Russia's (Putin's) point of view, that would certainly be  "a bridge too far :-)". We don't know that though, and they may just bug out. Their tactical situation there wasn't the best from day 1 and has deteriorated greatly in the last couple of months. Russia seems to still be undecided about defending Kherson (and everything else on that side of the river) and an offensive in Donetsk. It appears they may have decided not to decide and will attempt both. We shall see what happens. I am rooting for a collapse in Kherson Oblast (not just the city). If that happens it is Katy bar the Door for Crimea.