[Goose]

Each TB2 can carry 4 missiles, and Ukraine probably has more of them than Su24s and Su25s, and I'm sure is happier losing one than a piloted aircraft. Yes they will be more effective at night and at altitude, but they will still provide a lot of tactical capability in supporting a ground offensive. Ukraine has proven very adept at using systems outside of what they were designed for in this war.

I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the war Ukrainian TB2s will have taken out more armor than their Frogfoots and Hinds.

I don't disagree, mostly because Ukraine doesn't have many SU-25s and MI-24s. Supposedly, Ukraine has about 31 SU-25s that are operational. At the start of the war Ukraine supposedly had 34 operational MI-24s although they had serious spare parts issues in keeping them that way. These units participated heavily in the early part of the conflict and were key in preventing the fall of Kiev. Subsequently Ukraine has essentially withdrawn these helicopters from combat, using them only in special circumstances.

The TB2 has also suffered significant attrition in this conflict. Ukraine has lost over half of the ones they started the war with and they virtually disappeared from the battle space for a while. Ukraine received a resupply of 50 TB2s in July, which changes the equation significantly. They are very useful weapons when properly used, which Ukraine has done. That does not change the fact that they are not survivable in daylight below 10k feet (+/-). As many air forces have determined, under those conditions a 12.5mm machine gun can and will hit you. Most of the shells miss, but the gunner just bangs away until you leave or he hits you. The "cure" for this was the high-speed low altitude pass. You could still get hit, but it was less probable because the gunner had less time to engage and the rapidly changing bearing makes it difficult. It became statistical (golden BB). Radar directed (or later optically tracked) automatic cannons (eg. Gepards, ZSU-23) do not suffer from that problem and will get you if they are present. Subsequently, MANPADS made such an approach even more untenable.

The bombing accuracy of such an approach is also problematic. Precision weapons are hard to target while going like mad and being shot at. If you stay on a straight line, hitting you is easy. CAS is hard to do when a small mistakes in drop point produces blue-on-blue. Even best case, the aircraft losses were too high to be sustainable. This is true with aircraft that can absorb some hits and that can fly "fast". The TB2 can do neither. It also can't "jink" much which makes it an easy target. 12.5mm would tear them up. It would be gross misuse of assets to try. I am kind of assuming Russian MANPADS can't lock up a TB2 because it's heat signature is too low and for some other reasons. If that isn't true, things just get worse.

Let the TB2s do their thing at night and at their 18K ft "normal" altitude. That altitude wasn't chosen at random. There will still be some losses due to Russian air defense, ECM, and malfunctions, but those losses are sustainable, if Turkey keeps shipping product.

[Goose]

Each TB2 can carry 4 missiles, and Ukraine probably has more of them than Su24s and Su25s, and I'm sure is happier losing one than a piloted aircraft. Yes they will be more effective at night and at altitude, but they will still provide a lot of tactical capability in supporting a ground offensive. Ukraine has proven very adept at using systems outside of what they were designed for in this war.

I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the war Ukrainian TB2s will have taken out more armor than their Frogfoots and Hinds.

I don't disagree, mostly because Ukraine doesn't have many SU-25s and MI-24s. Supposedly, Ukraine has about 31 SU-25s that are operational. At the start of the war Ukraine supposedly had 34 operational MI-24s although they had serious spare parts issues in keeping them that way. These units participated heavily in the early part of the conflict and were key in preventing the fall of Kiev. Subsequently Ukraine has essentially withdrawn these helicopters from combat, using them only in special circumstances.

The TB2 has also suffered significant attrition in this conflict. Ukraine has lost over half of the ones they started the war with and they virtually disappeared from the battle space for a while. Ukraine received a resupply of 50 TB2s in July, which changes the equation significantly. They are very useful weapons when properly used, which Ukraine has done. That does not change the fact that they are not survivable in daylight below 10k feet (+/-). As many air forces have determined, under those conditions a 12.5mm machine gun can and will hit you. Most of the shells miss, but the gunner just bangs away until you leave or he hits you. The "cure" for this was the high-speed low altitude pass. You could still get hit, but it was less probable because the gunner had less time to engage and the rapidly changing bearing makes it difficult. It became statistical (golden BB). Radar directed (or later optically tracked) automatic cannons (eg. Gepards, ZSU-23) do not suffer from that problem and will get you if they are present. Subsequently, MANPADS made such an approach even more untenable.

The bombing accuracy of such an approach is also problematic. Precision weapons are hard to target while going like mad and being shot at. If you stay on a straight line, hitting you is easy. CAS is hard to do when a small mistakes in drop point produces blue-on-blue. Even best case, the aircraft losses were too high to be sustainable. This is true with aircraft that can absorb some hits and that can fly "fast". The TB2 can do neither. It also can't "jink" much which makes it an easy target. 12.5mm would tear them up. It would be gross misuse of assets to try. I am kind of assuming Russian MANPADS can't lock up a TB2 because it's heat signature is too low and for some other reasons. If that isn't true, things just get worse.

Let the TB2s do their thing at night and at their 18K ft "normal" altitude. That altitude wasn't chosen at random. There will still be some losses due to Russian air defense, ECM, and malfunctions, but those losses are sustainable, if Turkey keeps shipping product.