[Goose]

Goose may appreciate some IFVs on the move as part of the offensive.


https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1...2FhjSdqMjw

Indeed Goose does! This is a (perhaps small) indication of at least an attempt at a combined arms breakthrough. Maybe baby steps, maybe the "real deal", maybe in between. If this kind of attack becomes general, it could indeed be a big deal. I doubt Russia expected such an action and probably is not well prepared to meet it. The IFV with 25mm cannons are not Bradleys but are for sure a big upgrade for Ukraine. I still hope that if Ukraine can get behind them, they will fall apart, especially if all their commanders are across the river already (and thus free to didi if they wish). We shall see.

Strikes me as the optimal terrain for  real combined arms operations.

Indeed it is. In fact, combined arms is really the only rational way to do it. The Russian tactic of massing artillery has problems because there is no place for that artillery to "hide" except in urban areas. Anything that moves (or sits) in the open is vulnerable unless it is armored and even then it can be destroyed by infantry guided weapons (or aircraft).  You need an infantry screen delivered by IFV and protected by indirect fire to clear the way for tanks that will break the enemy GLOC. The "school solution". Often easier said than done. Ukraine originally lost that area mostly because of treachery, not Russian combined arms prowess. Station to Station advances by unsupported infantry just won't work in this terrain. 

Russia should be able to use their air power to blunt such an attack. They have lots of SAM assets available to protect their planes from Ukrainian air. However, they haven't delivered a stellar performance in that effort so far. Let's just hope the Ukrainians brought their Gepards with them (and that they work). Stingers work but are a thin defense against a determined opponent, Then again, how determined an opponent is the Russian air force?

Russia has supposedly been short on infantry all along and with the attrition rate as high as it has been, they should be even thinner. Ukraine may intend to give the Russians an escape route so they will run rather than fight. Surrounded Russian infantry has a history of being a nasty opponent. They fight hard when they have no choice. OTOH, that also means they can be reorganized and fight later if allowed to flee. Hopefully Ukraine will face that decision on a large scale! One important difference between now and the past, the Nazis wouldn't exactly treat Russian POWs that well. So far, Ukraine has, which may influence the Russian soldier more than a little.

I am doing my best not to expect too much from this "offensive", but the situation is something a strategist prays for. An opposing force divided by a major river with limited mobility, few bridges, and long GLOCs. Throw in poor morale and very limited access to reinforcements. You couldn't ask for more. If you can't "win" this one, it won't be very encouraging.

UPDATE: https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-calls...00613.html
For sure. Let's wait and see.

[Goose]

Goose may appreciate some IFVs on the move as part of the offensive.


https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1...2FhjSdqMjw

Indeed Goose does! This is a (perhaps small) indication of at least an attempt at a combined arms breakthrough. Maybe baby steps, maybe the "real deal", maybe in between. If this kind of attack becomes general, it could indeed be a big deal. I doubt Russia expected such an action and probably is not well prepared to meet it. The IFV with 25mm cannons are not Bradleys but are for sure a big upgrade for Ukraine. I still hope that if Ukraine can get behind them, they will fall apart, especially if all their commanders are across the river already (and thus free to didi if they wish). We shall see.

Strikes me as the optimal terrain for  real combined arms operations.

Indeed it is. In fact, combined arms is really the only rational way to do it. The Russian tactic of massing artillery has problems because there is no place for that artillery to "hide" except in urban areas. Anything that moves (or sits) in the open is vulnerable unless it is armored and even then it can be destroyed by infantry guided weapons (or aircraft).  You need an infantry screen delivered by IFV and protected by indirect fire to clear the way for tanks that will break the enemy GLOC. The "school solution". Often easier said than done. Ukraine originally lost that area mostly because of treachery, not Russian combined arms prowess. Station to Station advances by unsupported infantry just won't work in this terrain. 

Russia should be able to use their air power to blunt such an attack. They have lots of SAM assets available to protect their planes from Ukrainian air. However, they haven't delivered a stellar performance in that effort so far. Let's just hope the Ukrainians brought their Gepards with them (and that they work). Stingers work but are a thin defense against a determined opponent, Then again, how determined an opponent is the Russian air force?

Russia has supposedly been short on infantry all along and with the attrition rate as high as it has been, they should be even thinner. Ukraine may intend to give the Russians an escape route so they will run rather than fight. Surrounded Russian infantry has a history of being a nasty opponent. They fight hard when they have no choice. OTOH, that also means they can be reorganized and fight later if allowed to flee. Hopefully Ukraine will face that decision on a large scale! One important difference between now and the past, the Nazis wouldn't exactly treat Russian POWs that well. So far, Ukraine has, which may influence the Russian soldier more than a little.

I am doing my best not to expect too much from this "offensive", but the situation is something a strategist prays for. An opposing force divided by a major river with limited mobility, few bridges, and long GLOCs. Throw in poor morale and very limited access to reinforcements. You couldn't ask for more. If you can't "win" this one, it won't be very encouraging.

UPDATE: https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-calls...00613.html
For sure. Let's wait and see.