[Goose]

It looks like we are getting details of the almost 3 billion dollar package announced today.  Notably, 6 NASAMS and 250k rounds of artillery.  The US has now promised 8 total NASAMS, we can probably predict most of the cities these will protect.  

https://twitter.com/alexbward/status/156...3SyS9cl-vA

I actually hope the NASAMS are used aggressively (at least in some cases) to protect Ukrainian forces advancing against Russian forces from air attack. The NASAMs are effective against aircraft and slow cruise missiles. They are useless against tactical ballistic missiles and the "repurposed" high-speed anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles. The "protection" is relative. They will protect a circle of radius 25 km (give or take) against Kalibr and similar missiles 100%. If the missiles are flying higher than the minimum operational altitude, the radius expands accordingly. This assumes no cooperative engagement capability, which is pretty much for sure true in Ukraine.

The next question is when will they show up? I have seen no announcement of a contract being placed. This gives me little confidence that it will be soon. It could be the government has decided to go into stealth mode on this, but for sure that was not initially the case. I would suggest the Ukrainians no hold their breath. Maybe by spring.

[Goose]

It looks like we are getting details of the almost 3 billion dollar package announced today.  Notably, 6 NASAMS and 250k rounds of artillery.  The US has now promised 8 total NASAMS, we can probably predict most of the cities these will protect.  

https://twitter.com/alexbward/status/156...3SyS9cl-vA

I actually hope the NASAMS are used aggressively (at least in some cases) to protect Ukrainian forces advancing against Russian forces from air attack. The NASAMs are effective against aircraft and slow cruise missiles. They are useless against tactical ballistic missiles and the "repurposed" high-speed anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles. The "protection" is relative. They will protect a circle of radius 25 km (give or take) against Kalibr and similar missiles 100%. If the missiles are flying higher than the minimum operational altitude, the radius expands accordingly. This assumes no cooperative engagement capability, which is pretty much for sure true in Ukraine.

The next question is when will they show up? I have seen no announcement of a contract being placed. This gives me little confidence that it will be soon. It could be the government has decided to go into stealth mode on this, but for sure that was not initially the case. I would suggest the Ukrainians no hold their breath. Maybe by spring.