[Goose]

I agree that PrSM is unlikely but we did give Ukraine those brand new untested Phoenix Ghost drones, so we've demonstrated that we're ok with letting Ukraine test new weapons in combat at least with that system.

You are right about the Phoenix Ghost drones. I think the difference is that nobody in the US military is really "waiting for" them and if they don't work, or appear not to work, no major US program gets delayed/canceled. I am also pretty sure we have none to give them. The first Low Rate Initial Production models aren't due till July 2023.

And while you're probably right that Russia would not distinguish between Poland and US supplying ATACMS, they seem to only really be capable of whining about it. Russia has not meaningfully responded to provision of HIMARS or HARM missiles besides lying about how often they are destroying those systems. So I think US is probably less worried than previously about what would happen, and some other country providing the missiles gives the US a fig leaf to say their prior statements were not outright lies.

True. In fact, I wish we would just say we are giving them ATACMS and do so. For some reason, even if Russia can only whine about it, our policy has been to not do it.

Still all just speculation at this point until we see some debris.

Debris or a verifiable radar track. The HARM debris were from a missile that "missed" as I understand it, and which appeared to have been damaged by fragments of "something". Not sure I trust that though. In any case, debris from an ATACMS that actually explodes may be hard to find.

[Goose]

I agree that PrSM is unlikely but we did give Ukraine those brand new untested Phoenix Ghost drones, so we've demonstrated that we're ok with letting Ukraine test new weapons in combat at least with that system.

You are right about the Phoenix Ghost drones. I think the difference is that nobody in the US military is really "waiting for" them and if they don't work, or appear not to work, no major US program gets delayed/canceled. I am also pretty sure we have none to give them. The first Low Rate Initial Production models aren't due till July 2023.

And while you're probably right that Russia would not distinguish between Poland and US supplying ATACMS, they seem to only really be capable of whining about it. Russia has not meaningfully responded to provision of HIMARS or HARM missiles besides lying about how often they are destroying those systems. So I think US is probably less worried than previously about what would happen, and some other country providing the missiles gives the US a fig leaf to say their prior statements were not outright lies.

True. In fact, I wish we would just say we are giving them ATACMS and do so. For some reason, even if Russia can only whine about it, our policy has been to not do it.

Still all just speculation at this point until we see some debris.

Debris or a verifiable radar track. The HARM debris were from a missile that "missed" as I understand it, and which appeared to have been damaged by fragments of "something". Not sure I trust that though. In any case, debris from an ATACMS that actually explodes may be hard to find.