08-22-2022, 09:18 AM
While it is true that the "public" doesn't know how the strike on Saki air base was performed, I think the reason that is true is that Ukraine likes it that way and that none of the possible methods is without it's objections. However, This article has a lot of "objections" that can be raised. First of all, there is absolutely no way it was a PrSM. Even the US Army doesn't have IOC on this missile yet and there is no way in hell we are sending something that new to Ukraine. Even we don't know how well it works (or not) and what the problems may be.
Second of all, if one takes a look at what has gone on in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan in the last 20 years the idea that covertly installed explosives detonate only at night is laughable. Yes, they are often (but not always) planted at night. They go off when they will do the most damage. They are sometimes command-detonated to ensure that. The authors are also indeed correct that no "operator" is going to carry in hundreds of pounds of C4 when a few oz. will do. This is especially true if the few oz. is attached to a 500 kilo bomb. You can get great crater size that way. Obviously, I can't know if that was the case, but equally the authors can't argue the craters are only possible with a missile strike.
Their idea that possibly some other NATO nation provided ATACMS is indeed interesting. The only country that possibly would do that without US approval is Turkey. It is possible (though AFAIK not publicly known) that Turkey could have reverse-engineered an ATACMS. It is also possible Israel has a "substitute" that they MIGHT sell, though I don't think that is probable. It is also possible as the authors point out that the US did authorize such a transfer. On the whole, I doubt this explanation for two reasons. First, Russia wouldn't care one way or another whether the missile came from Poland or from the US. Even if we actually didn't authorize it, they would never believe that, and obviously as I write this it is clear that I would never believe that. Second, Russian air defense would certainly detect several Mach 3 targets overflying Crimea. They may not even attempt to engage them, but they would detect them. Russia would know if it was an ATACMS or similar. I for one do not believe they would be quiet about that. Maybe they would, Russians do strange things sometime. They may think it makes them look bad. However, having an air base blow up makes them look bad too. I think Putin would scream literally bloody murder.
It is interesting that the authors agree with my belief the picture shown was a HIMARS with the travel plate installed. The authors try to make an argument that this could have been an attempt to obscure what the HIMARS was carrying (if anything), but I think it is just SOP when you are not in a tactical situation and certainly when nothing is being carried. It keeps things from rattling around so much. I think we can put that report aside as not informative.
So, yes, we don't know.
Second of all, if one takes a look at what has gone on in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan in the last 20 years the idea that covertly installed explosives detonate only at night is laughable. Yes, they are often (but not always) planted at night. They go off when they will do the most damage. They are sometimes command-detonated to ensure that. The authors are also indeed correct that no "operator" is going to carry in hundreds of pounds of C4 when a few oz. will do. This is especially true if the few oz. is attached to a 500 kilo bomb. You can get great crater size that way. Obviously, I can't know if that was the case, but equally the authors can't argue the craters are only possible with a missile strike.
Their idea that possibly some other NATO nation provided ATACMS is indeed interesting. The only country that possibly would do that without US approval is Turkey. It is possible (though AFAIK not publicly known) that Turkey could have reverse-engineered an ATACMS. It is also possible Israel has a "substitute" that they MIGHT sell, though I don't think that is probable. It is also possible as the authors point out that the US did authorize such a transfer. On the whole, I doubt this explanation for two reasons. First, Russia wouldn't care one way or another whether the missile came from Poland or from the US. Even if we actually didn't authorize it, they would never believe that, and obviously as I write this it is clear that I would never believe that. Second, Russian air defense would certainly detect several Mach 3 targets overflying Crimea. They may not even attempt to engage them, but they would detect them. Russia would know if it was an ATACMS or similar. I for one do not believe they would be quiet about that. Maybe they would, Russians do strange things sometime. They may think it makes them look bad. However, having an air base blow up makes them look bad too. I think Putin would scream literally bloody murder.
It is interesting that the authors agree with my belief the picture shown was a HIMARS with the travel plate installed. The authors try to make an argument that this could have been an attempt to obscure what the HIMARS was carrying (if anything), but I think it is just SOP when you are not in a tactical situation and certainly when nothing is being carried. It keeps things from rattling around so much. I think we can put that report aside as not informative.
So, yes, we don't know.