[Goose]

US sending more HARM missiles per the latest tranche of aid.

https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/15606...6MUiGvp4gg

HARM missiles are good news. Makes one wonder if Ukraine actually has several launch platforms available, not just one.
TOW missiles are probably not good news. Javelins are pretty much a replacement, so we are sending "older" weapons in this shipment.

Air defenses VERY active today over Crimea and Sevastopol. Yesterday there was AD activity over Kerch Strait Bridge.

Here are some videos

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/15607...6MUiGvp4gg

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/15606...6MUiGvp4gg

These are presumably Ukrainian reconnaissance drones.

Could be, but it also could be an exercise aimed at convincing residents of Crimea that there is actually any air defense there. Hard to know. Russians do strange things at times.

They are probing deep into Crimea. Gonna be HARM time soon!

We all hope so. Lots of possibilities in terms of what Ukraine might do in Crimea. I think more sabotage is a given. There is also the question of why Russia had gathered many S-300/S-400 systems together in the same weapons park (which Ukraine destroyed). They are doing the same in Belarus. Makes no sense to me. Target rich environments work well for Ukraine.

NASAMS expected in 2-3 mos
https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/15606...6MUiGvp4gg

This is probably not "new" news. I was unable to find a recent quote to that effect. That said, there are two very discouraging facts here. First, at best they are still talking "several months", and second there is no announcement of a contract. Seems no progress here at all. Of course, there may be progress and they just aren't making it public. Having an NASAMS near Kherson could allow Ukraine's air force to operate while denying that ability to the Russians. Could be a big nasty surprise if used that way.

[Goose]

US sending more HARM missiles per the latest tranche of aid.

https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/15606...6MUiGvp4gg

HARM missiles are good news. Makes one wonder if Ukraine actually has several launch platforms available, not just one.
TOW missiles are probably not good news. Javelins are pretty much a replacement, so we are sending "older" weapons in this shipment.

Air defenses VERY active today over Crimea and Sevastopol. Yesterday there was AD activity over Kerch Strait Bridge.

Here are some videos

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/15607...6MUiGvp4gg

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/15606...6MUiGvp4gg

These are presumably Ukrainian reconnaissance drones.

Could be, but it also could be an exercise aimed at convincing residents of Crimea that there is actually any air defense there. Hard to know. Russians do strange things at times.

They are probing deep into Crimea. Gonna be HARM time soon!

We all hope so. Lots of possibilities in terms of what Ukraine might do in Crimea. I think more sabotage is a given. There is also the question of why Russia had gathered many S-300/S-400 systems together in the same weapons park (which Ukraine destroyed). They are doing the same in Belarus. Makes no sense to me. Target rich environments work well for Ukraine.

NASAMS expected in 2-3 mos
https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/15606...6MUiGvp4gg

This is probably not "new" news. I was unable to find a recent quote to that effect. That said, there are two very discouraging facts here. First, at best they are still talking "several months", and second there is no announcement of a contract. Seems no progress here at all. Of course, there may be progress and they just aren't making it public. Having an NASAMS near Kherson could allow Ukraine's air force to operate while denying that ability to the Russians. Could be a big nasty surprise if used that way.