[Goose]

https://twitter.com/ej_burrows/status/15...EJXBqRkqJQ

This, if true, would be good news for the Ukrainians, as it will make Russia’s preferred mode of attack (carpet the ground with artillery in order to support a slow plodding territorial advance) much more difficult.

The whole thread is worth a read, including the assessment of the once proud Russian Black Sea fleet.

BC

Despite the repeated optimistic quotes we have seen (for a period of several months) in the press, Russia is nowhere close to running out of ammunition. The fact they are taking ammunition from "deep storage" indeed reflects the very large consumption of artillery rounds the Russians continue to use (PER DAY) in the Ukraine. However, if one looks at how much ammunition Russia had stockpiled in the early 90s, it truly boggles the mind. NATO of course wouldn't use 30 (or more) year old ammunition. It would have been disposed of long ago. Russia however "never throws anything away". They will use their old (and very old) ammunition. Lots of it won't be effective and it will undoubtedly cause them problems. Old ammunition is more subject to sympathetic detonation, often produces "stuck rounds", and often produces "short" rounds. It is much more dangerous to handle and transport. Still, the Russians can continue firing away for a very long time with quantities similar to what they used previously in Luhansk. Remember while they were doing that they were also exerting considerable artillery pressure "all along the line of contact". Ukraine still repeatedly points out how badly they are out-gunned for a good reason. Russia will also manufacture as much artillery ammunition as it can. These shells don't require anything "high tech" and most of the raw materials are available in Russia. The winter slowdown will certainly help this process.

Ukraine's best bet is to continue interdicting the transport of this massive ammunition supply. Their HIMARS activities along with their behind the lines sabotage will add up. Hopefully, it can be effective enough to mitigate the Russian artillery advantage. Deeper into Russia unconventional attacks can greatly reduce the "stockpile" of artillery ammunition. Some of the dumps are absolutely massive. No idea what Ukraine can actually execute but they have surprised before. Ukraine also needs to improve it's counter-battery capability, which is certainly doable. Obviously, overrunning the enemy artillery is the "preferred" solution, but failing that the other two options are Ukraine's only choices. Russian artillery isn't going away on it's own.

[Goose]

https://twitter.com/ej_burrows/status/15...EJXBqRkqJQ

This, if true, would be good news for the Ukrainians, as it will make Russia’s preferred mode of attack (carpet the ground with artillery in order to support a slow plodding territorial advance) much more difficult.

The whole thread is worth a read, including the assessment of the once proud Russian Black Sea fleet.

BC

Despite the repeated optimistic quotes we have seen (for a period of several months) in the press, Russia is nowhere close to running out of ammunition. The fact they are taking ammunition from "deep storage" indeed reflects the very large consumption of artillery rounds the Russians continue to use (PER DAY) in the Ukraine. However, if one looks at how much ammunition Russia had stockpiled in the early 90s, it truly boggles the mind. NATO of course wouldn't use 30 (or more) year old ammunition. It would have been disposed of long ago. Russia however "never throws anything away". They will use their old (and very old) ammunition. Lots of it won't be effective and it will undoubtedly cause them problems. Old ammunition is more subject to sympathetic detonation, often produces "stuck rounds", and often produces "short" rounds. It is much more dangerous to handle and transport. Still, the Russians can continue firing away for a very long time with quantities similar to what they used previously in Luhansk. Remember while they were doing that they were also exerting considerable artillery pressure "all along the line of contact". Ukraine still repeatedly points out how badly they are out-gunned for a good reason. Russia will also manufacture as much artillery ammunition as it can. These shells don't require anything "high tech" and most of the raw materials are available in Russia. The winter slowdown will certainly help this process.

Ukraine's best bet is to continue interdicting the transport of this massive ammunition supply. Their HIMARS activities along with their behind the lines sabotage will add up. Hopefully, it can be effective enough to mitigate the Russian artillery advantage. Deeper into Russia unconventional attacks can greatly reduce the "stockpile" of artillery ammunition. Some of the dumps are absolutely massive. No idea what Ukraine can actually execute but they have surprised before. Ukraine also needs to improve it's counter-battery capability, which is certainly doable. Obviously, overrunning the enemy artillery is the "preferred" solution, but failing that the other two options are Ukraine's only choices. Russian artillery isn't going away on it's own.