[GK3]

I think a special forces attack would be possible but I imagine the area around the air base would be well secured and the strikes appear to be very accurate. Maybe a relatively close in team with a Switchblade or similar, hitting a munitions dump or fuel tank could make it all go boom. Would think Russian AD could handle that but maybe not. Looking forward to learning more, hopefully from similar strikes in Russian rear areas, and soon.

Switchblade is a very reasonable idea! I had forgotten about that. The air base security would not extend out that far. A Switchblade 300 drone can go 10 km if needed. They could get much closer than that IMHO. Fly it right to where it needs to go. Russian (or US for that matter) AD wouldn't even see these drones and they are too small to hit with anything either we or they have anyway. On top of that, they wouldn't be in the air very high or very long. The thing that argues against that is that nobody is reporting having seen them in flight. Then again, who was looking? Look a lot like birds at any distance.

It is also eminently possible a team infiltrated right on to the base and placed the explosives by hand. I have been at several US bases where they knew that a security check was in progress and yet the infiltrators got in anyway. Happens all the time. The infiltrators are good at it and find the weak points. Also, even with a war on, when you are that far behind the lines keeping your base security alert and proactive isn't easy. It is a boring job with no reward for doing it well.

My money is on the last paragraph.  The Ukraine has had a long time to infiltrate special operators into the Crimea who have become simply part of the landscape.  Probably well acquainted with the area around the installation and quite possibly aware of infiltration routes.  Russian forces are more or less seeing themselves at a beach resort and are probably not paying anywhere as much attention to base security as they should.  Get them a supply of explosive and associate stuff like timers and detonators and just wait for the right time.  As you point out, keeping infiltrators out when you know they are coming isn't easy, keeping them out when you aren't even thinking about them makes it pretty easy for well trained operators. I have read that Russian munitions are easier to detonate via sympathetic explosions that ours, maybe making the whole thing easier.

[GK3]

I think a special forces attack would be possible but I imagine the area around the air base would be well secured and the strikes appear to be very accurate. Maybe a relatively close in team with a Switchblade or similar, hitting a munitions dump or fuel tank could make it all go boom. Would think Russian AD could handle that but maybe not. Looking forward to learning more, hopefully from similar strikes in Russian rear areas, and soon.

Switchblade is a very reasonable idea! I had forgotten about that. The air base security would not extend out that far. A Switchblade 300 drone can go 10 km if needed. They could get much closer than that IMHO. Fly it right to where it needs to go. Russian (or US for that matter) AD wouldn't even see these drones and they are too small to hit with anything either we or they have anyway. On top of that, they wouldn't be in the air very high or very long. The thing that argues against that is that nobody is reporting having seen them in flight. Then again, who was looking? Look a lot like birds at any distance.

It is also eminently possible a team infiltrated right on to the base and placed the explosives by hand. I have been at several US bases where they knew that a security check was in progress and yet the infiltrators got in anyway. Happens all the time. The infiltrators are good at it and find the weak points. Also, even with a war on, when you are that far behind the lines keeping your base security alert and proactive isn't easy. It is a boring job with no reward for doing it well.

My money is on the last paragraph.  The Ukraine has had a long time to infiltrate special operators into the Crimea who have become simply part of the landscape.  Probably well acquainted with the area around the installation and quite possibly aware of infiltration routes.  Russian forces are more or less seeing themselves at a beach resort and are probably not paying anywhere as much attention to base security as they should.  Get them a supply of explosive and associate stuff like timers and detonators and just wait for the right time.  As you point out, keeping infiltrators out when you know they are coming isn't easy, keeping them out when you aren't even thinking about them makes it pretty easy for well trained operators. I have read that Russian munitions are easier to detonate via sympathetic explosions that ours, maybe making the whole thing easier.