[Goose]

In a complete change of subjects, Goose I was wondering if I could get your insight.  Previously we had talked about how Germany has little equipment to give to Ukraine, because they don't have a ton of reserves themselves.  I was curious how that's possible.  I know they don't spend the goal of 2% of GDP on defense spending, but given how big of a country they are, even a lower percentage of GDP, you'd expect much more stocks of military equipment to be available.  It's just crazy to me that much smaller countries, granted they are former Soviet countries, are able to give more to Ukraine than Germany.

First of all, the German government (and people) really don't want to be "involved" in this whole Ukraine war. They want it to just go away and they have a cultural excuse that their (Nazi) past compels them to stay out of wars and be peacemakers. IMHO this is somewhat self serving because before reunification they didn't believe this at all. In any case it means that if they can legitimately not do something, that is their distinct preference. This preference underlies the other factors.

As reunification occurred and the rather rapid draw down of military activity occurred Germany sold everything they could to whoever they reasonably could. The entire East German Navy was sold to Indonesia. Poland later bought a large number of Leopard tanks from Germany (and all of Belgium's) The Germans gave away lots of the DDRs Soviet era weapons that they were unable to sell. Some of the ones being given away to Ukraine actually came originally from Germany. Almost all of Germany's MIG-29s were sold to Poland for 1 euro each.

After conscription was abolished the draw downs continued at an accelerated rate. There were many armored fighting vehicles and similar things that the Germans no longer needed but couldn't sell to other NATO countries. The reasons often were the poorer countries couldn't afford them and the richer countries didn't need them. The larger German military manufactures ended up buying them real cheap (probably because they were "urged" to do so). This got them off the Heer's books and they didn't have to explain what they were doing with them. Naturally the larger defense companies were not interested in spending lots of money keeping this equipment in the best of shape. Anybody who bought it would want upgrades and the costs of restoration could be recovered then. The Gephards that someday Ukraine will get actually are coming from KMW, a private company, not the German military. The German government can say with a straight face that these units (and all the other units, like scads of BMP-1s) are not in their control and therefore they can't be provided. There are other issues like Swiss content that can be used as a excuse why something "can't be done". After all of the above, there isn't much spare equipment in the German armed forces. They got rid of it.

So where does the current German defense spending go? The all volunteer military is expensive, much more so than even in the US. To attract good people, or actually any people at all, the government has to compete with German industry. Interestingly the German NCOs that I have worked with in the last 10 years are every bit as good at their jobs as the ones from previous years. However, they are also much more dedicated to their personal career path and career choices than in the past. Lots of them will quit, which wouldn't have happened in the 80s. The only way to keep them is to pay them (and not expect them to work weekends or after 1600). That was unheard of in the 20th century.

The second big money sink is the undeniable fact that Germany uses their military budget for corporate welfare. This isn't new, and possibly isn't even "bad". Most European countries do this to a lesser or greater degree. However, in Germany, it is well towards the greater end (off the end IMHO). They buy many weapons systems in small quantities which drives up the price. They then don't actually compete lots of procurements, either because there is legitimately no alternatives or because keeping some company going is in the "national interest". U-212s cost much more to build in Germany than they do in Italy (who is not exactly a model of cost control either). An F-35 today costs 80 million each (as part of the lot 14 buy), while a Typhoon costs 124m each in "small" quantities. The Luftwaffe contracts out essentially all it's maintenance of the Typhoons to the manufacturer, undoubtedly at a big premium. How that is supposed to work in a war is another question. Then there is the A400M, big, big money. The Germans also bought the entire Dutch inventory (8) P-3C CUP that were being upgraded. Very good move, but the Germans then basically didn't use them for 10 years. (There were some serious export issues with the ALR-95. The US made no friends in Germany over that one.) The Germans then put in place a multi-million euro upgrade program for the planes they weren't using. This program was eventually canceled after spending tons of money but without completing the upgrade. It was canceled in favor of buying P-8s that would cost less than finishing the upgrade(!!!!) (thank God, finally a rational action). They also developed the MARS II version of the M270. It's claim to fame is that it can't launch cluster munitions. I guess the Germans didn't trust themselves to follow their own national polices.
 
So yes, they can spend a lot of money without having anything that can be given to Ukraine (or in some cases, anything at all). They shed equipment like mad as their force shrank. They spent the "new" money on big ticket items that aren't applicable to the current situation in Ukraine and on personnel. While it is probable the Germans could find a few things they could part with, they aren't looking too hard. Having worked with the Bundeswehr either directly or as part of NATO since the early 70s, for me this has been painful to watch. At one point Germany arguably possessed the best modern armored force in the world. As an important man said, it now stands naked.

It should also be noted that the large majority of Soviet era equipment being transferred to Ukraine from the less well off NATO countries is being "back filled" by more modern (better) NATO compatible equipment. They aren't really being totally altruistic in many cases.

[Goose]

In a complete change of subjects, Goose I was wondering if I could get your insight.  Previously we had talked about how Germany has little equipment to give to Ukraine, because they don't have a ton of reserves themselves.  I was curious how that's possible.  I know they don't spend the goal of 2% of GDP on defense spending, but given how big of a country they are, even a lower percentage of GDP, you'd expect much more stocks of military equipment to be available.  It's just crazy to me that much smaller countries, granted they are former Soviet countries, are able to give more to Ukraine than Germany.

First of all, the German government (and people) really don't want to be "involved" in this whole Ukraine war. They want it to just go away and they have a cultural excuse that their (Nazi) past compels them to stay out of wars and be peacemakers. IMHO this is somewhat self serving because before reunification they didn't believe this at all. In any case it means that if they can legitimately not do something, that is their distinct preference. This preference underlies the other factors.

As reunification occurred and the rather rapid draw down of military activity occurred Germany sold everything they could to whoever they reasonably could. The entire East German Navy was sold to Indonesia. Poland later bought a large number of Leopard tanks from Germany (and all of Belgium's) The Germans gave away lots of the DDRs Soviet era weapons that they were unable to sell. Some of the ones being given away to Ukraine actually came originally from Germany. Almost all of Germany's MIG-29s were sold to Poland for 1 euro each.

After conscription was abolished the draw downs continued at an accelerated rate. There were many armored fighting vehicles and similar things that the Germans no longer needed but couldn't sell to other NATO countries. The reasons often were the poorer countries couldn't afford them and the richer countries didn't need them. The larger German military manufactures ended up buying them real cheap (probably because they were "urged" to do so). This got them off the Heer's books and they didn't have to explain what they were doing with them. Naturally the larger defense companies were not interested in spending lots of money keeping this equipment in the best of shape. Anybody who bought it would want upgrades and the costs of restoration could be recovered then. The Gephards that someday Ukraine will get actually are coming from KMW, a private company, not the German military. The German government can say with a straight face that these units (and all the other units, like scads of BMP-1s) are not in their control and therefore they can't be provided. There are other issues like Swiss content that can be used as a excuse why something "can't be done". After all of the above, there isn't much spare equipment in the German armed forces. They got rid of it.

So where does the current German defense spending go? The all volunteer military is expensive, much more so than even in the US. To attract good people, or actually any people at all, the government has to compete with German industry. Interestingly the German NCOs that I have worked with in the last 10 years are every bit as good at their jobs as the ones from previous years. However, they are also much more dedicated to their personal career path and career choices than in the past. Lots of them will quit, which wouldn't have happened in the 80s. The only way to keep them is to pay them (and not expect them to work weekends or after 1600). That was unheard of in the 20th century.

The second big money sink is the undeniable fact that Germany uses their military budget for corporate welfare. This isn't new, and possibly isn't even "bad". Most European countries do this to a lesser or greater degree. However, in Germany, it is well towards the greater end (off the end IMHO). They buy many weapons systems in small quantities which drives up the price. They then don't actually compete lots of procurements, either because there is legitimately no alternatives or because keeping some company going is in the "national interest". U-212s cost much more to build in Germany than they do in Italy (who is not exactly a model of cost control either). An F-35 today costs 80 million each (as part of the lot 14 buy), while a Typhoon costs 124m each in "small" quantities. The Luftwaffe contracts out essentially all it's maintenance of the Typhoons to the manufacturer, undoubtedly at a big premium. How that is supposed to work in a war is another question. Then there is the A400M, big, big money. The Germans also bought the entire Dutch inventory (8) P-3C CUP that were being upgraded. Very good move, but the Germans then basically didn't use them for 10 years. (There were some serious export issues with the ALR-95. The US made no friends in Germany over that one.) The Germans then put in place a multi-million euro upgrade program for the planes they weren't using. This program was eventually canceled after spending tons of money but without completing the upgrade. It was canceled in favor of buying P-8s that would cost less than finishing the upgrade(!!!!) (thank God, finally a rational action). They also developed the MARS II version of the M270. It's claim to fame is that it can't launch cluster munitions. I guess the Germans didn't trust themselves to follow their own national polices.
 
So yes, they can spend a lot of money without having anything that can be given to Ukraine (or in some cases, anything at all). They shed equipment like mad as their force shrank. They spent the "new" money on big ticket items that aren't applicable to the current situation in Ukraine and on personnel. While it is probable the Germans could find a few things they could part with, they aren't looking too hard. Having worked with the Bundeswehr either directly or as part of NATO since the early 70s, for me this has been painful to watch. At one point Germany arguably possessed the best modern armored force in the world. As an important man said, it now stands naked.

It should also be noted that the large majority of Soviet era equipment being transferred to Ukraine from the less well off NATO countries is being "back filled" by more modern (better) NATO compatible equipment. They aren't really being totally altruistic in many cases.