[TrumpCard]

Here's one view regarding the tactics needed for a counteroffensive in the South: https://kyivindependent.com/national/wha...-look-like

Here's one source who is inferring from recent Ukraine DoD comments that the US is planning to supply the 300km ATACMS: https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status...8685062144

I think it's naive to assume that Ukraine is ignoring Russia's ability to run supply lines and stage air defenses from Crimea.  Ukraine might not end up getting the 300km ATACMS, but the information we can see in the press suggests to me that Ukraine and the US both know the value of such weaponry.  

Can you provide more info on the basis for believing that attacking supply lines or air defenses in Crimea constitutes a "red line" for Russia?  That may be the case, but the information I read in the press does not seem helpful in reaching any such conclusions.  I'm not confident that there is a "red line" where anything on one side will draw no significant response and anything on the other side will draw an escalation to mutually assured destruction.  Putin does not seem fully rational, so maybe ignore logic, but, to my mind, if he were rational, I would expect escalations commensurate with acts that the US takes.  I suppose Putin might treat an attack on a bridge in the Black Sea as the same as an attack on civilian population centers like St. Petersburg, but that is not at all self-evident to me.

[TrumpCard]

Here's one view regarding the tactics needed for a counteroffensive in the South: https://kyivindependent.com/national/wha...-look-like

Here's one source who is inferring from recent Ukraine DoD comments that the US is planning to supply the 300km ATACMS: https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status...8685062144

I think it's naive to assume that Ukraine is ignoring Russia's ability to run supply lines and stage air defenses from Crimea.  Ukraine might not end up getting the 300km ATACMS, but the information we can see in the press suggests to me that Ukraine and the US both know the value of such weaponry.  

Can you provide more info on the basis for believing that attacking supply lines or air defenses in Crimea constitutes a "red line" for Russia?  That may be the case, but the information I read in the press does not seem helpful in reaching any such conclusions.  I'm not confident that there is a "red line" where anything on one side will draw no significant response and anything on the other side will draw an escalation to mutually assured destruction.  Putin does not seem fully rational, so maybe ignore logic, but, to my mind, if he were rational, I would expect escalations commensurate with acts that the US takes.  I suppose Putin might treat an attack on a bridge in the Black Sea as the same as an attack on civilian population centers like St. Petersburg, but that is not at all self-evident to me.