[Goose]

Assuming Ukraine gets more HIMARS, do you think we will start seeing an expanded role for their uses?  As of right now, they seem to be mostly used to attack ammo dumps and command posts, but I'd have to assume they can also be extremely effective in counter artillery fire, especially once the Russian offensive in the east picks up.  I'd also assume they can be used to take out air defenses and other defensive positions for the expected Kherson offensive by Ukrainian forces.

I do. I think they are actually using them for counter-battery now, although they pick their spots and are very careful. That will have to happen more frequently if the Russian offensive in the east does pick up. For that reason, they need more HIMARS-M270s RTFN. The M270 is arguably better to use if you have to be close to the front. It is less fragile but also less mobile on roads.

The expected Kherson offensive, if it happens, can take several forms. The HIMARS will be needed for all of them. Unfortunately the Crimea contains very strong air defenses that are left over from the Soviet era where they defended the fleet base at Sevastopol. The S-400s can pretty much dominate the Kherson Oblast airspace, depending on which type of missiles are actually present. The HIMARS without ATACMs will have trouble reaching many of these batteries, especially if the Ukraine doesn't want to push them too far forward. With ATACMs, easily possible. Unfortunately these missiles also makes attacking the Russian fleet base and the Kerch Strait Bridge possible. For the US, that may be "a bridge too far".

I don't know that anybody has really though through how Ukraine can recover Kherson Oblast without hitting targets in Crimea. Politically, Russia thinks Crimea is part of Russia. Obviously the US doesn't and Ukraine certainly doesn't. Will Russia respond to attacks in Crimea with significant escalation? If not, how about the Black Sea Fleet anchored in Sevastopol? One could argue that is just like sinking Moskva, but does Russia see it that way? I am virtually certain Russia regards the Kerch Strait Bridge as part of Russia. Attacking that is like attacking St. Petersburg. However, can Ukraine get Kherson Oblast back without cutting that link?

[Goose]

Assuming Ukraine gets more HIMARS, do you think we will start seeing an expanded role for their uses?  As of right now, they seem to be mostly used to attack ammo dumps and command posts, but I'd have to assume they can also be extremely effective in counter artillery fire, especially once the Russian offensive in the east picks up.  I'd also assume they can be used to take out air defenses and other defensive positions for the expected Kherson offensive by Ukrainian forces.

I do. I think they are actually using them for counter-battery now, although they pick their spots and are very careful. That will have to happen more frequently if the Russian offensive in the east does pick up. For that reason, they need more HIMARS-M270s RTFN. The M270 is arguably better to use if you have to be close to the front. It is less fragile but also less mobile on roads.

The expected Kherson offensive, if it happens, can take several forms. The HIMARS will be needed for all of them. Unfortunately the Crimea contains very strong air defenses that are left over from the Soviet era where they defended the fleet base at Sevastopol. The S-400s can pretty much dominate the Kherson Oblast airspace, depending on which type of missiles are actually present. The HIMARS without ATACMs will have trouble reaching many of these batteries, especially if the Ukraine doesn't want to push them too far forward. With ATACMs, easily possible. Unfortunately these missiles also makes attacking the Russian fleet base and the Kerch Strait Bridge possible. For the US, that may be "a bridge too far".

I don't know that anybody has really though through how Ukraine can recover Kherson Oblast without hitting targets in Crimea. Politically, Russia thinks Crimea is part of Russia. Obviously the US doesn't and Ukraine certainly doesn't. Will Russia respond to attacks in Crimea with significant escalation? If not, how about the Black Sea Fleet anchored in Sevastopol? One could argue that is just like sinking Moskva, but does Russia see it that way? I am virtually certain Russia regards the Kerch Strait Bridge as part of Russia. Attacking that is like attacking St. Petersburg. However, can Ukraine get Kherson Oblast back without cutting that link?