[Goose]

I'm guessing Iran's reported plans to give Russia drones is specifically aimed at trying to defeat the HIMARS, so there is no doubt this war is escalating to a degree.

Actually these drones are more of a "general purpose" assistance. Russia has been utilizing drones to do recon. Many (most?) of these (Orlan-10) drones have been single-use missions. These drones apparently are designed to be recovered and reused, but attrition is high. Russia is undoubtedly in a situation where building lots more is impossible. No electronics. The Iranian drones are needed to fill that gap. Naturally more drones makes more recon possible, and therefore finding HIMARS more probable. What benefits Russia will get from these Iranian drones is TBD. A suicide drone is the best weapon to use against a mobile target like HIMARS. Second best is an armed drone.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/17/us/po...-iran.html

But what, if anything does U.S. and Saudi get from each other besides maybe some OPEC cooperation for more oil production in exchange for the MBS photo op with Biden?

Right now any real (best) or notional (maybe keeps panic down) increase in oil production anywhere in the world is a priority for the US. Keeping the EU "on side" regarding Ukraine is not a given, and the stakes for NATO and the US are indeed very high, let alone Ukraine itself. The gas situation in Europe is bad enough. Oil prices and supply make it a double whammy. This situation will undoubtedly get worse as time passes and the weather gets colder. The response of (at least) Germany and Italy to a "severe" economic downturn is IMHO unpredictable. Better not to find out.

We have also sharply reversed our policy regarding Venezuela. Whether this change regarding Venezuela is wise policy is IMHO arguable, but it seems to have happened without much discussion in the press. Our previous policy regarding Saudi Arabia after the killing of Khashoggi was perhaps morally correct but clearly ineffective. That is fine when you don't care what Saudi Arabia thinks, but realistically for the US this is essentially never the case. This is true because of their role in OPEC but even more so because of their role in middle eastern politics. A policy of condemnation coupled with more, not less engagement would IMHO have been sustainable. What we did was realistically not sustainable. Modifying that policy under pressure is not ideal, but not modifying it would be worse.

[Goose]

I'm guessing Iran's reported plans to give Russia drones is specifically aimed at trying to defeat the HIMARS, so there is no doubt this war is escalating to a degree.

Actually these drones are more of a "general purpose" assistance. Russia has been utilizing drones to do recon. Many (most?) of these (Orlan-10) drones have been single-use missions. These drones apparently are designed to be recovered and reused, but attrition is high. Russia is undoubtedly in a situation where building lots more is impossible. No electronics. The Iranian drones are needed to fill that gap. Naturally more drones makes more recon possible, and therefore finding HIMARS more probable. What benefits Russia will get from these Iranian drones is TBD. A suicide drone is the best weapon to use against a mobile target like HIMARS. Second best is an armed drone.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/17/us/po...-iran.html

But what, if anything does U.S. and Saudi get from each other besides maybe some OPEC cooperation for more oil production in exchange for the MBS photo op with Biden?

Right now any real (best) or notional (maybe keeps panic down) increase in oil production anywhere in the world is a priority for the US. Keeping the EU "on side" regarding Ukraine is not a given, and the stakes for NATO and the US are indeed very high, let alone Ukraine itself. The gas situation in Europe is bad enough. Oil prices and supply make it a double whammy. This situation will undoubtedly get worse as time passes and the weather gets colder. The response of (at least) Germany and Italy to a "severe" economic downturn is IMHO unpredictable. Better not to find out.

We have also sharply reversed our policy regarding Venezuela. Whether this change regarding Venezuela is wise policy is IMHO arguable, but it seems to have happened without much discussion in the press. Our previous policy regarding Saudi Arabia after the killing of Khashoggi was perhaps morally correct but clearly ineffective. That is fine when you don't care what Saudi Arabia thinks, but realistically for the US this is essentially never the case. This is true because of their role in OPEC but even more so because of their role in middle eastern politics. A policy of condemnation coupled with more, not less engagement would IMHO have been sustainable. What we did was realistically not sustainable. Modifying that policy under pressure is not ideal, but not modifying it would be worse.