[Goose]

I don’t think that the Turkish and Hungarian NATO ambassadors vote in favor without endorsement of their respective prime ministers (Erdowan and Orban and Erdowan), and those guys would not allow their parliaments to vote against it, as it would demonstrate weakness.

BC

In the end the vote will be to admit. However, as far as demonstrating "weakness", I think quite the opposite. Orban would just say 'See, here in Hungary we have a democratic process and you can't take it for granted that we will go along. Our priorities are not necessarily your priorities".
If the parliamentary vote was supposed to be a "rubber stamp" for the government, why have it? The reason is to commit the populace, not just the current government, to the common defense of the new member. I can for sure see Orban postponing the vote to make this point. Hungary will undoubtedly go along in the end, but possibly with some delays.

Erdogan is a much more serious problem. He got what he thinks is a commitment from Sweden and Finland to do certain things. If he thinks he isn't getting what was agreed to, he is perfectly capable of raising a fuss, and that doesn't make him look weak at all. His people will lap it up. I wouldn't be amazed if the vote got "postponed" to "clear up some issues". Hopefully the vote happens quickly enough there won't be time to notice Sweden isn't extraditing anybody, or that Erdogan is willing to settle for lifting the arms embargo and tighter controls on the PKK.

[Goose]

I don’t think that the Turkish and Hungarian NATO ambassadors vote in favor without endorsement of their respective prime ministers (Erdowan and Orban and Erdowan), and those guys would not allow their parliaments to vote against it, as it would demonstrate weakness.

BC

In the end the vote will be to admit. However, as far as demonstrating "weakness", I think quite the opposite. Orban would just say 'See, here in Hungary we have a democratic process and you can't take it for granted that we will go along. Our priorities are not necessarily your priorities".
If the parliamentary vote was supposed to be a "rubber stamp" for the government, why have it? The reason is to commit the populace, not just the current government, to the common defense of the new member. I can for sure see Orban postponing the vote to make this point. Hungary will undoubtedly go along in the end, but possibly with some delays.

Erdogan is a much more serious problem. He got what he thinks is a commitment from Sweden and Finland to do certain things. If he thinks he isn't getting what was agreed to, he is perfectly capable of raising a fuss, and that doesn't make him look weak at all. His people will lap it up. I wouldn't be amazed if the vote got "postponed" to "clear up some issues". Hopefully the vote happens quickly enough there won't be time to notice Sweden isn't extraditing anybody, or that Erdogan is willing to settle for lifting the arms embargo and tighter controls on the PKK.