[Goose]

Beyond just HIMARS, it sounds like Ukrainians used a 2S22 Bohdana howitzer with TB2's to correct their fire.  Russia has confirmed they are withdrawing out of good will, but clearly it's because the cost outweighed the benefits.  If Ukraine is able to export grain from Odesa, then it might explain why Russia cared about the island.  Russia still has Submarines in the black sea, so who knows.

Snake Island is 35km from "safe" Ukrainian territory. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61992491 They have all along had plenty of weapons, including even Grad rockets that could reach the target. It never made sense for either side to physically occupy this island. As far as grain exports go, it is true that Russia has submarines that can sink anything coming out of Ukraine. They can do it with both torpedoes and anti-ship missiles. They can also lay mines that give Russia plausible deniability. Ukraine has mined the entire area. Who is to say it wasn't a Ukrainian mine? The incompetent Ukrainians simply missed it when sweeping the channel.

For that matter, the Backfires that have been firing KH-22s into shopping malls can sink those same grain ships from the Caspian Sea. These missiles are very poor land attack missiles because their inertial navigation system is not real precise. When shooting at a ship (which is moving in any case), the missile just needs to get "close enough". The onboard radar then "locks up" and hits the target precisely. Works much better in that case. If there are many ships, it hits the one that appears to be the largest (best radar reflector).

The Russians need Snake Island not at all. Just abject stupidity they kept trying to occupy it.

[Goose]

Beyond just HIMARS, it sounds like Ukrainians used a 2S22 Bohdana howitzer with TB2's to correct their fire.  Russia has confirmed they are withdrawing out of good will, but clearly it's because the cost outweighed the benefits.  If Ukraine is able to export grain from Odesa, then it might explain why Russia cared about the island.  Russia still has Submarines in the black sea, so who knows.

Snake Island is 35km from "safe" Ukrainian territory. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61992491 They have all along had plenty of weapons, including even Grad rockets that could reach the target. It never made sense for either side to physically occupy this island. As far as grain exports go, it is true that Russia has submarines that can sink anything coming out of Ukraine. They can do it with both torpedoes and anti-ship missiles. They can also lay mines that give Russia plausible deniability. Ukraine has mined the entire area. Who is to say it wasn't a Ukrainian mine? The incompetent Ukrainians simply missed it when sweeping the channel.

For that matter, the Backfires that have been firing KH-22s into shopping malls can sink those same grain ships from the Caspian Sea. These missiles are very poor land attack missiles because their inertial navigation system is not real precise. When shooting at a ship (which is moving in any case), the missile just needs to get "close enough". The onboard radar then "locks up" and hits the target precisely. Works much better in that case. If there are many ships, it hits the one that appears to be the largest (best radar reflector).

The Russians need Snake Island not at all. Just abject stupidity they kept trying to occupy it.