[Goose]

For a couple of months, the media consistently characterized the battle in the Donbas as a likely stalemate or a grinding advance. It no longer feels that way. I hate to say it, but it’s starting to feel like a route. ISW reporting that 800-2000 Ukrainian troops appear to be trapped in a cauldron around Hirske.  At this point, I hope Ukraine can prevent Russia from taking more than “just” the Donbas before cold weather sinks in and defense becomes easier.

While losing lots of those troops would be bad, it wouldn't change the situation much. It is also true that the Donetsk Oblast is still partially in Ukrainian hands. Russia still has lots of fighting to do in the Donbas and their current tactics take time to implement. The Russian advance has been grinding and will continue to be that unless Ukraine's infantry morale collapses. For the next few months, keeping that morale up appears to be the most important objective.

Russia has learned from their previous efforts and are holding back their troops and being more "careful" than they were previously. (It is also because they have fewer troops and the troops aren't in a hurry to get shot at.) They can do that because their artillery can inflict significant casualties on the Ukrainian infantry while visa versa is generally not true. Russian casualties, while still significant, are going down. This is extremely demoralizing to the Ukrainian troops, because it makes it appear that death or defeat is inevitable, it is just a matter of time. Ukraine needs a story that can keep their troops going. I think they have that story in the more powerful precision weapons making a difference. However, that won't work forever. It has to start happening or things will get much easier for Russia. Previously we were hearing some noises from Ukrainian sources that there would be significant counter-offensives in June. Now we are hearing August. That's fine, but the troops have to remain confident in their leadership. Making projections you can't actually deliver on is not a good way to do that, so I hope that isn't the case.

[Goose]

For a couple of months, the media consistently characterized the battle in the Donbas as a likely stalemate or a grinding advance. It no longer feels that way. I hate to say it, but it’s starting to feel like a route. ISW reporting that 800-2000 Ukrainian troops appear to be trapped in a cauldron around Hirske.  At this point, I hope Ukraine can prevent Russia from taking more than “just” the Donbas before cold weather sinks in and defense becomes easier.

While losing lots of those troops would be bad, it wouldn't change the situation much. It is also true that the Donetsk Oblast is still partially in Ukrainian hands. Russia still has lots of fighting to do in the Donbas and their current tactics take time to implement. The Russian advance has been grinding and will continue to be that unless Ukraine's infantry morale collapses. For the next few months, keeping that morale up appears to be the most important objective.

Russia has learned from their previous efforts and are holding back their troops and being more "careful" than they were previously. (It is also because they have fewer troops and the troops aren't in a hurry to get shot at.) They can do that because their artillery can inflict significant casualties on the Ukrainian infantry while visa versa is generally not true. Russian casualties, while still significant, are going down. This is extremely demoralizing to the Ukrainian troops, because it makes it appear that death or defeat is inevitable, it is just a matter of time. Ukraine needs a story that can keep their troops going. I think they have that story in the more powerful precision weapons making a difference. However, that won't work forever. It has to start happening or things will get much easier for Russia. Previously we were hearing some noises from Ukrainian sources that there would be significant counter-offensives in June. Now we are hearing August. That's fine, but the troops have to remain confident in their leadership. Making projections you can't actually deliver on is not a good way to do that, so I hope that isn't the case.