[Goose]

This video sheds some light on the strategic importance of Snake Island.

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/wsj-exp...jem10point

Basically, for Russia, it makes it easier to blockade Odessa and the remaining Ukrainian ports.  To be fair, they don’t need Snake Island to do it.

BC

BC, I think the WSJ article sheds little if any light on the "strategic importance" of Snake Island. The only place they discuss that at all is the possibility of installing a Tombstone/Gravestone radar on the island. Otherwise, they talk about the battle for Russia to defend the island and how messy that has been. As they point out, the Tor and Pantsir currently there are short range defensive systems. Ukraine has repeatedly destroyed Tors on the island and there is no reason to expect they can't do so again. That is why the WSJ "experts" said it was extremely unlikely Russia would install a "valuable" surveillance radar on the island.

You can't hide a surveillance radar in a revetment. It's antenna has to see the horizon. The Tor also can't hit what it can't illuminate. Probably that is why the Tor and Pantsir left their revetments during the attacks. They were blind there. They are also extremely vulnerable to drone strikes, as we have seen. None of the present or hypothesized systems have any anti-ship capability. Commercial ships could sail right by them unless and until that changes. On top of that, Snake Island has virtually no fresh water. You have to bring that and absolutely everything else you need in by ship, month after month. Those ships have gone boom a lot. So far, it is unclear Russia can even defend Snake Island, let alone use it for anything.

Snake island is 200 km by air from Odesa. Kherson is 145 km. Other areas fully under Russian air supremacy are even closer. Clearly Russia does not control the air around Snake Island. For Odesa, Snake Island is hard to see having any importance at all. The one scenario Snake Island has value is if Russia intends a landing in the area of Ust-Dunaisk or slightly northward. In that case using Snake Island as a radar picket and air defense location would make sense. Russia did go to some trouble to destroy the railroad from Odesa to that area. They also have been messing around in Moldova and certainly Transnistria. However, making Snake Island strong enough to even defend itself is dubious, and Russia doesn't have the sea control to just run convoys there at will. Hard to see that happening, but it does keep Ukraine worrying about it.

[Goose]

This video sheds some light on the strategic importance of Snake Island.

https://www.wsj.com/video/series/wsj-exp...jem10point

Basically, for Russia, it makes it easier to blockade Odessa and the remaining Ukrainian ports.  To be fair, they don’t need Snake Island to do it.

BC

BC, I think the WSJ article sheds little if any light on the "strategic importance" of Snake Island. The only place they discuss that at all is the possibility of installing a Tombstone/Gravestone radar on the island. Otherwise, they talk about the battle for Russia to defend the island and how messy that has been. As they point out, the Tor and Pantsir currently there are short range defensive systems. Ukraine has repeatedly destroyed Tors on the island and there is no reason to expect they can't do so again. That is why the WSJ "experts" said it was extremely unlikely Russia would install a "valuable" surveillance radar on the island.

You can't hide a surveillance radar in a revetment. It's antenna has to see the horizon. The Tor also can't hit what it can't illuminate. Probably that is why the Tor and Pantsir left their revetments during the attacks. They were blind there. They are also extremely vulnerable to drone strikes, as we have seen. None of the present or hypothesized systems have any anti-ship capability. Commercial ships could sail right by them unless and until that changes. On top of that, Snake Island has virtually no fresh water. You have to bring that and absolutely everything else you need in by ship, month after month. Those ships have gone boom a lot. So far, it is unclear Russia can even defend Snake Island, let alone use it for anything.

Snake island is 200 km by air from Odesa. Kherson is 145 km. Other areas fully under Russian air supremacy are even closer. Clearly Russia does not control the air around Snake Island. For Odesa, Snake Island is hard to see having any importance at all. The one scenario Snake Island has value is if Russia intends a landing in the area of Ust-Dunaisk or slightly northward. In that case using Snake Island as a radar picket and air defense location would make sense. Russia did go to some trouble to destroy the railroad from Odesa to that area. They also have been messing around in Moldova and certainly Transnistria. However, making Snake Island strong enough to even defend itself is dubious, and Russia doesn't have the sea control to just run convoys there at will. Hard to see that happening, but it does keep Ukraine worrying about it.