[BostonCard]

Posting a few interesting perspectives, which I think highlight the uncertainty of the situation, even four months in…

First a UK assessment of Russian casualties:

[tweet] https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status...lcQC0DIswg[/tweet]

I assume that the Russians aren’t grinding their own soldiers as much.  Still, it is an astonishing number.

Second a bearish assessment of what each side is playing for.

[tweet] https://twitter.com/dalperovitch/status/...lcQC0DIswg[/tweet]

Russia basically happy to sit on its gains and blackmailing the west into lifting sanctions. Sadly, I could see the Europeans capitulating at the threat of the gas lines being cutoff. With regards to the blockade, I do kind of wonder why we don’t convoy ships with grain out of there under US Navy protection. The risks of a confrontation are not trivial, but It would be a public relations win for the US and Ukraine to bring out grain exports to Egypt and other ambivalent countries, and a public relations nightmare for Russia were it to attack.

Lastly, a more upbeat assessment.

[tweet] https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/...lcQC0DIswg[/tweet]

Basically Russian failure to break through is telling, and the trajectory probably favors the Ukrainian side in the mid term.

RU manpower will continue to deplete. UA resources will continue to grow.

Hope he’s right.

BC

[BostonCard]

Posting a few interesting perspectives, which I think highlight the uncertainty of the situation, even four months in…

First a UK assessment of Russian casualties:

[tweet] https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status...lcQC0DIswg[/tweet]

I assume that the Russians aren’t grinding their own soldiers as much.  Still, it is an astonishing number.

Second a bearish assessment of what each side is playing for.

[tweet] https://twitter.com/dalperovitch/status/...lcQC0DIswg[/tweet]

Russia basically happy to sit on its gains and blackmailing the west into lifting sanctions. Sadly, I could see the Europeans capitulating at the threat of the gas lines being cutoff. With regards to the blockade, I do kind of wonder why we don’t convoy ships with grain out of there under US Navy protection. The risks of a confrontation are not trivial, but It would be a public relations win for the US and Ukraine to bring out grain exports to Egypt and other ambivalent countries, and a public relations nightmare for Russia were it to attack.

Lastly, a more upbeat assessment.

[tweet] https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/...lcQC0DIswg[/tweet]

Basically Russian failure to break through is telling, and the trajectory probably favors the Ukrainian side in the mid term.

RU manpower will continue to deplete. UA resources will continue to grow.

Hope he’s right.

BC