[BostonCard]

That seems like a sad, but true assessment.

There are two important questions.  The first is the rate of Russian advance.  The distance between Popsana and Lyshyshank/Severodonetsk is less than 10 miles as the crow flies.  That gives you an idea of the size of the salient.  I’d have to go back and look at the maps from early May, but it suggests a very slow Russian advance, probably less than half a kilometer a day.

So, the follow up and key question is what is Ukraine getting in exchange for this territory, and specifically, whether it is enough.  Presumably, Ukraine is hiding it’s time until Western weapons are up and running (how fast, and how much being the keys), and it is hoping to grind down the attacking army faster than its own army is being grinder down.  We know Ukrainians are suffering casualties, probably somewhere between 100 and 200 a day.  We also know that they are inflicting casualties, but who knows how many.  If Russia is really sending in 40-year-old “volunteers” with minimal training, then there is not much left.  But if their plodding advance just grinds the Ukrainians to smithereens while they stave off their losses, then there is a risk that Ukrainian resistance will just collapse at some point.  So, from the Russian side, how much of this is concentrating all their efforts in order to get one big psychological win, and how much of this is just the first of a lot more assaults that slowly take erode Ukrainian positions.

I wish I knew.

BC

[BostonCard]

That seems like a sad, but true assessment.

There are two important questions.  The first is the rate of Russian advance.  The distance between Popsana and Lyshyshank/Severodonetsk is less than 10 miles as the crow flies.  That gives you an idea of the size of the salient.  I’d have to go back and look at the maps from early May, but it suggests a very slow Russian advance, probably less than half a kilometer a day.

So, the follow up and key question is what is Ukraine getting in exchange for this territory, and specifically, whether it is enough.  Presumably, Ukraine is hiding it’s time until Western weapons are up and running (how fast, and how much being the keys), and it is hoping to grind down the attacking army faster than its own army is being grinder down.  We know Ukrainians are suffering casualties, probably somewhere between 100 and 200 a day.  We also know that they are inflicting casualties, but who knows how many.  If Russia is really sending in 40-year-old “volunteers” with minimal training, then there is not much left.  But if their plodding advance just grinds the Ukrainians to smithereens while they stave off their losses, then there is a risk that Ukrainian resistance will just collapse at some point.  So, from the Russian side, how much of this is concentrating all their efforts in order to get one big psychological win, and how much of this is just the first of a lot more assaults that slowly take erode Ukrainian positions.

I wish I knew.

BC