[Goose]

Hard for any of us to judge Erdogan's true intentions, but he apparently encouraged the Finns to apply and told the Finnish PM that Turkey would support them joining NATO, back in April.

So I'm not sure he's that serious about the PKK stuff. I don't think US or anyone else in NATO screwed the pooch. Erdogan just doing his thing.

Take a look at https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/dipl...-obstacles date April 4. Also https://nationworldnews.com/nato-chief-t...-alliance/ originally published 4/6/2022. Clearly, there was some significant concern back in April about Erdogan's position. If you have a reference for him "encouraging" Finland to apply, I would like to read it. In any case, was it a public statement saying Turkey would not stand in the way of Finland and Sweden joining NATO? If not, IMHO NATO did indeed commit a grievous error.
You are correct that nobody really knows Erdogan's reasoning. His intentions are actually another matter. He is indeed a loose cannon. Given that, I think NATO should have realized they needed to back him into a corner from which it would be hard to extricate himself. If he resisted that effort, look out, because he isn't on board and will stand in the way. Actually, where the US and NATO have been burned most frequently is by not taking Erdogan at his word. He said Turkey would buy the S-400 because they didn't like the local manufacturing content/technology transfer (and the cost) of the Patriot. Nobody took him seriously, because it didn't appear to "make sense" (to us) that he would do that. He did exactly what he said he was going to do. Based on the April 4th article I cited above, clearly NATO was aware there was at a minimum the arms embargo "problem" that had to be "fixed". The other issues, such as the PKK were also already "out there". NATO apparently thought that these issues could be made to "go away". Real bad assumption.
Allowing Finland and Sweden to apply for membership without Erdogan publicly embracing that action was asking for trouble, given that he had already raised issues. It gives him even more leverage. If backroom negotiations were going to be "the answer", those negotiations needed to happen BEFORE the application, because if Erdogan was going to demand the impossible from them, there was no reason for NATO to endure the embarrassment and concern raised by a public split among it's members.

[Goose]

Hard for any of us to judge Erdogan's true intentions, but he apparently encouraged the Finns to apply and told the Finnish PM that Turkey would support them joining NATO, back in April.

So I'm not sure he's that serious about the PKK stuff. I don't think US or anyone else in NATO screwed the pooch. Erdogan just doing his thing.

Take a look at https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/dipl...-obstacles date April 4. Also https://nationworldnews.com/nato-chief-t...-alliance/ originally published 4/6/2022. Clearly, there was some significant concern back in April about Erdogan's position. If you have a reference for him "encouraging" Finland to apply, I would like to read it. In any case, was it a public statement saying Turkey would not stand in the way of Finland and Sweden joining NATO? If not, IMHO NATO did indeed commit a grievous error.
You are correct that nobody really knows Erdogan's reasoning. His intentions are actually another matter. He is indeed a loose cannon. Given that, I think NATO should have realized they needed to back him into a corner from which it would be hard to extricate himself. If he resisted that effort, look out, because he isn't on board and will stand in the way. Actually, where the US and NATO have been burned most frequently is by not taking Erdogan at his word. He said Turkey would buy the S-400 because they didn't like the local manufacturing content/technology transfer (and the cost) of the Patriot. Nobody took him seriously, because it didn't appear to "make sense" (to us) that he would do that. He did exactly what he said he was going to do. Based on the April 4th article I cited above, clearly NATO was aware there was at a minimum the arms embargo "problem" that had to be "fixed". The other issues, such as the PKK were also already "out there". NATO apparently thought that these issues could be made to "go away". Real bad assumption.
Allowing Finland and Sweden to apply for membership without Erdogan publicly embracing that action was asking for trouble, given that he had already raised issues. It gives him even more leverage. If backroom negotiations were going to be "the answer", those negotiations needed to happen BEFORE the application, because if Erdogan was going to demand the impossible from them, there was no reason for NATO to endure the embarrassment and concern raised by a public split among it's members.