[DC 86]

If Giants are sellers(things will have to go very badly for that to happen) it will be a bleak second half of the season.  But if it does happen, maybe we will see some pressure applied to ownership to stop being CHEAP. And a realization that stars matter.

Giants are 28-24, which project to an 87 win rate.  At this time last year, the Giants were....32-20.  I'm not worried, tbh.  I'm much more worried that the Warriors won't win the championship and even more worried that Stanford football is headed for a string of sub-four-win seasons.

They will be sitting home in Oct if they win 87.  I think it will take 90.

The third wild card will alter teams' behavior, and may result in stronger teams fighting to make the playoffs than what historical data shows.

But since the introduction of the second wild card in each league (meaning 2012-2021) the median seventh highest win total has been 84. So theoretically 85 wins would be sufficient around half the time.

Of course the actual seventh highest win total has ranged between 79 and 90.

So even adjusting for behavioral changes, it would appear that more than 90 wins should mean a very likely wild card, around 86 wins would be close to a 50/50 proposition, and something like 82 wins would make it very unlikely but not impossible.

P.S. this is why the MLBPA was opposed to expanded playoffs and drew the line at twelve. It's rational for a team like the Giants to build a very profitable team with a moderate payroll that still has a good chance to reach the playoffs. The marginal cost of competing with the Dodgers for the division title is enormous, so better to target 86-90 wins which will keep fans engaged and qualify for a wild card more often than not, and then possibly get lucky in the postseason.

[DC 86]

If Giants are sellers(things will have to go very badly for that to happen) it will be a bleak second half of the season.  But if it does happen, maybe we will see some pressure applied to ownership to stop being CHEAP. And a realization that stars matter.

Giants are 28-24, which project to an 87 win rate.  At this time last year, the Giants were....32-20.  I'm not worried, tbh.  I'm much more worried that the Warriors won't win the championship and even more worried that Stanford football is headed for a string of sub-four-win seasons.

They will be sitting home in Oct if they win 87.  I think it will take 90.

The third wild card will alter teams' behavior, and may result in stronger teams fighting to make the playoffs than what historical data shows.

But since the introduction of the second wild card in each league (meaning 2012-2021) the median seventh highest win total has been 84. So theoretically 85 wins would be sufficient around half the time.

Of course the actual seventh highest win total has ranged between 79 and 90.

So even adjusting for behavioral changes, it would appear that more than 90 wins should mean a very likely wild card, around 86 wins would be close to a 50/50 proposition, and something like 82 wins would make it very unlikely but not impossible.

P.S. this is why the MLBPA was opposed to expanded playoffs and drew the line at twelve. It's rational for a team like the Giants to build a very profitable team with a moderate payroll that still has a good chance to reach the playoffs. The marginal cost of competing with the Dodgers for the division title is enormous, so better to target 86-90 wins which will keep fans engaged and qualify for a wild card more often than not, and then possibly get lucky in the postseason.