[M T]

Seemingly irrational behavior can be rational.  A rational person can use appearing irrational as an advantage.

Among the scenarios, what if Putin was given a year to live some months ago?  He no longer would care about being removed from power, either internally or externally.  What would be his concerns?  The safety of his family?  Making a name for himself in Russian history?  A smooth transition to the next leader?  He can rattle the swords all he wants as he won't have to live up to it.  Or would he try to go out in a blaze of what he sees as glory?

Going a bit further with this possibility....  If that situation were known to his top generals, he might be given a bit more leeway.  Not out of sympathy, but because they just have to wait for him to die rather than risk a coup.  As for blame, they can always claim they were just following orders.

What would happen in Russia if Putin were to die in the middle of this war?   What would happen to the war?  Would there be pressure for a hawk to take over and press the war, perhaps in Putin's name, or would there be pressure to bring the soldiers home?   I have no idea.

On the other hand, sometimes irrational behavior is just irrational.

[M T]

Seemingly irrational behavior can be rational.  A rational person can use appearing irrational as an advantage.

Among the scenarios, what if Putin was given a year to live some months ago?  He no longer would care about being removed from power, either internally or externally.  What would be his concerns?  The safety of his family?  Making a name for himself in Russian history?  A smooth transition to the next leader?  He can rattle the swords all he wants as he won't have to live up to it.  Or would he try to go out in a blaze of what he sees as glory?

Going a bit further with this possibility....  If that situation were known to his top generals, he might be given a bit more leeway.  Not out of sympathy, but because they just have to wait for him to die rather than risk a coup.  As for blame, they can always claim they were just following orders.

What would happen in Russia if Putin were to die in the middle of this war?   What would happen to the war?  Would there be pressure for a hawk to take over and press the war, perhaps in Putin's name, or would there be pressure to bring the soldiers home?   I have no idea.

On the other hand, sometimes irrational behavior is just irrational.