[Goose]

One thing I wonder, and if anyone has any insight it is welcomed, but what factor does Ukraine fully mobilizing just before the ware started. Estimates were that Ukraine had has about 200k active soldiers, and likely more than double that in reserve.  How long does it take for those reserves to be at full strength.  Also, assuming a number of people volunteered to join the armed forces after Feb 24th, how long will it take for those soldiers to be combat ready.  Given Russia had an estimated 190k soldiers for this attack, with a certain amount added from DNR, LNR, and Wagner, shouldn't we expect the troop numbers to favor Ukraine overwhelmingly at some point?  Obviously troop numbers alone aren't a full measure of military strength, but these numbers are part of why I'm optimistic long term for Ukraine, assuming western support doesn't dry up.

The Ukraine does have a highly motivated populace that wants to help protect the country. Many of them are already serving in volunteer home guard formations of various types. These units have, up to this point anyway, little formal training. While some have argued that fighting is the best way to learn to be a soldier, both the people doing it this way and the trainers point out this is emphatically not the case. If it were, armies wouldn't bother to train their troops. The problem is that much of soldiering is doing the same boring thing, like patrolling an area or guarding a checkpoint, day after day where you learn nothing much new. Then, you walk into a firefight and have to do the "right thing" immediately or you are dead. You have no training, and you haven't been in a firefight before. You don't know what to do, so you are dead and probably several of your colleagues are dead too because you F***** up. It isn't like sports, where you learn from game experience. Mistakes in war have a much higher cost and significantly shorten your career. Ukraine has been training troops as fast as they can on an ad-hock basis to a minimal standard. These units have done wonderfully well considering the fact they are recently organized and untrained. However, it is difficult to attack with such a force as they don't have either training or experience in doing so. They are also heterogeneously organized and of vastly varying capability so organizing an attack is difficult. Their transportation capabilities are also not real good (understatement).

Supposedly Ukraine is also fully training several battalions that have not been committed to the fight yet. These units are going to be used as an assault force to drive the Russians back. They are also supposedly going to use a lot of the T-72s they got from other former Warsaw Pact countries to form Mechanized Infantry/Armored units to participate in the offensives. Naturally, such units would be ineffective if not pretty well trained. These people are supposedly volunteers who were not part of the Ukrainian forces at the start of the war. Zelenskyy has been pretty cagey about these units, saying only that they should be available after "the second week in June". Whether this is true or not, I don't know, but it surely would be great if it were. It also makes sense. Recent events in the Donbas may hold back committing these units. If these units don't exist, they will need to be created before Ukraine can drive the Russians back. In order not to waste their offensive capabilities, it probably will require waiting until they can at least locally neutralize Russian artillery with some of the new weapons. Of course, overrunning said artillery will accomplish that too :-).

[Goose]

One thing I wonder, and if anyone has any insight it is welcomed, but what factor does Ukraine fully mobilizing just before the ware started. Estimates were that Ukraine had has about 200k active soldiers, and likely more than double that in reserve.  How long does it take for those reserves to be at full strength.  Also, assuming a number of people volunteered to join the armed forces after Feb 24th, how long will it take for those soldiers to be combat ready.  Given Russia had an estimated 190k soldiers for this attack, with a certain amount added from DNR, LNR, and Wagner, shouldn't we expect the troop numbers to favor Ukraine overwhelmingly at some point?  Obviously troop numbers alone aren't a full measure of military strength, but these numbers are part of why I'm optimistic long term for Ukraine, assuming western support doesn't dry up.

The Ukraine does have a highly motivated populace that wants to help protect the country. Many of them are already serving in volunteer home guard formations of various types. These units have, up to this point anyway, little formal training. While some have argued that fighting is the best way to learn to be a soldier, both the people doing it this way and the trainers point out this is emphatically not the case. If it were, armies wouldn't bother to train their troops. The problem is that much of soldiering is doing the same boring thing, like patrolling an area or guarding a checkpoint, day after day where you learn nothing much new. Then, you walk into a firefight and have to do the "right thing" immediately or you are dead. You have no training, and you haven't been in a firefight before. You don't know what to do, so you are dead and probably several of your colleagues are dead too because you F***** up. It isn't like sports, where you learn from game experience. Mistakes in war have a much higher cost and significantly shorten your career. Ukraine has been training troops as fast as they can on an ad-hock basis to a minimal standard. These units have done wonderfully well considering the fact they are recently organized and untrained. However, it is difficult to attack with such a force as they don't have either training or experience in doing so. They are also heterogeneously organized and of vastly varying capability so organizing an attack is difficult. Their transportation capabilities are also not real good (understatement).

Supposedly Ukraine is also fully training several battalions that have not been committed to the fight yet. These units are going to be used as an assault force to drive the Russians back. They are also supposedly going to use a lot of the T-72s they got from other former Warsaw Pact countries to form Mechanized Infantry/Armored units to participate in the offensives. Naturally, such units would be ineffective if not pretty well trained. These people are supposedly volunteers who were not part of the Ukrainian forces at the start of the war. Zelenskyy has been pretty cagey about these units, saying only that they should be available after "the second week in June". Whether this is true or not, I don't know, but it surely would be great if it were. It also makes sense. Recent events in the Donbas may hold back committing these units. If these units don't exist, they will need to be created before Ukraine can drive the Russians back. In order not to waste their offensive capabilities, it probably will require waiting until they can at least locally neutralize Russian artillery with some of the new weapons. Of course, overrunning said artillery will accomplish that too :-).