[Goose]

I get the feeling of his will be similar to the M777’s where we sent 18 while they trained, then once training was done we gave them 90. I’m guessing once the three week crash course is fine, we will send a lot more, and hopefully also other western nations will join. I believe the Uk and Germany will send some different systems. I believe Norway has 12 in storage, wouldn’t be surprised if those make their way to Ukraine. I think they will likely need 40+. Poland I think ordered a large number of them as well, given how generous they’ve been, maybe they will also donate some. Speaking of Poland, they just committed to upgrading their air fleet, I wonder if a bunch of MiG 29 spare parts will magically make their way to Ukraine.

Poland did order a large number of HIMARS systems (500) but they have not yet been delivered (as I understand it). Poland does have 20 or so already. The Norwegian MLRS systems are "hardly used" and would be good candidates. In any case, the US has plenty of these systems, so obtaining units was never an issue. The incremental approach makes sense, in that it ensures the training allows Ukraine to actually be effective. I also would agree that 40 units or so would be about the minimum that Ukraine needs to actually be effective in the Donbas. However, there will be battlefield losses and units down for maintenance. Ukraine is a large country, so distributing these units to prevent Russia from shelling other parts of the country (not Donbas) at will is desirable. The military axiom, "smack them, don't tap them" applies and says more would be better. Poland wanted 500. Ukraine rates at least 100 IMHO.

The problem with the incremental approach is that it takes time, and during that time lots of Ukrainians will die. It also gives Russia the opportunity to take more territory, which the Ukraine will have to buy back with blood. It also increases the risk that in the interim period naysayers in the EU and inside Ukraine itself will cause the West to lose interest in supporting Ukraine. There are already plenty of proposals out there (from Italy and France in particular) that there should be a cease-fire and Ukraine should just cede territory to Russia. Ukraine, understandably, wants no part of that, but if the EU loses interest the Ukrainians may have little choice.

It is absolutely inconceivable to me that the US has delayed so long in providing MLRS systems to Ukraine. They are actually much easier to operate than an artillery piece. They are more mobile. Their only limitation is that they cannot provide continuous fires for long periods of time, which guns can. Why these units weren't first, or at worst coincident with the M777 is hard to understand from a functional point of view. It had to be political. We must have decided the MLRS was going to anger Putin more than guns would. Apparently, Russian success on the battlefield has overcome these political reservations. If I were a Ukrainian, I would find this very hard to understand. Somehow the fact he is winning is going to make Putin OK with a weapon designed to prevent him from winning???????

[Goose]

I get the feeling of his will be similar to the M777’s where we sent 18 while they trained, then once training was done we gave them 90. I’m guessing once the three week crash course is fine, we will send a lot more, and hopefully also other western nations will join. I believe the Uk and Germany will send some different systems. I believe Norway has 12 in storage, wouldn’t be surprised if those make their way to Ukraine. I think they will likely need 40+. Poland I think ordered a large number of them as well, given how generous they’ve been, maybe they will also donate some. Speaking of Poland, they just committed to upgrading their air fleet, I wonder if a bunch of MiG 29 spare parts will magically make their way to Ukraine.

Poland did order a large number of HIMARS systems (500) but they have not yet been delivered (as I understand it). Poland does have 20 or so already. The Norwegian MLRS systems are "hardly used" and would be good candidates. In any case, the US has plenty of these systems, so obtaining units was never an issue. The incremental approach makes sense, in that it ensures the training allows Ukraine to actually be effective. I also would agree that 40 units or so would be about the minimum that Ukraine needs to actually be effective in the Donbas. However, there will be battlefield losses and units down for maintenance. Ukraine is a large country, so distributing these units to prevent Russia from shelling other parts of the country (not Donbas) at will is desirable. The military axiom, "smack them, don't tap them" applies and says more would be better. Poland wanted 500. Ukraine rates at least 100 IMHO.

The problem with the incremental approach is that it takes time, and during that time lots of Ukrainians will die. It also gives Russia the opportunity to take more territory, which the Ukraine will have to buy back with blood. It also increases the risk that in the interim period naysayers in the EU and inside Ukraine itself will cause the West to lose interest in supporting Ukraine. There are already plenty of proposals out there (from Italy and France in particular) that there should be a cease-fire and Ukraine should just cede territory to Russia. Ukraine, understandably, wants no part of that, but if the EU loses interest the Ukrainians may have little choice.

It is absolutely inconceivable to me that the US has delayed so long in providing MLRS systems to Ukraine. They are actually much easier to operate than an artillery piece. They are more mobile. Their only limitation is that they cannot provide continuous fires for long periods of time, which guns can. Why these units weren't first, or at worst coincident with the M777 is hard to understand from a functional point of view. It had to be political. We must have decided the MLRS was going to anger Putin more than guns would. Apparently, Russian success on the battlefield has overcome these political reservations. If I were a Ukrainian, I would find this very hard to understand. Somehow the fact he is winning is going to make Putin OK with a weapon designed to prevent him from winning???????