[Mick]

Well, how about Shields to the White Sox for some guy named Fernando Tatis Jr.

The world is littered with trades that look ridiculous in hindsight, but statistically, a young player who is already one of major league’s bests is a surer bet than a prospect, no matter how promising.

BC

The problem is that at the time Shields was already 34 years old. The previous season he had an ERA+ of 95 (meaning 5% under league average) and at the time of the trade his ERA+ was 93 (7% under league average), so you're giving up a promising prospect (albeit one that wasn't expected to reach the heights that he has) for an aging, below average, declining player.

Beltran was indeed an elite player but strictly a rental; he played a total of 44 games for San Francisco. Wheeler was an elite prospect (he'd been picked #6 overall in the 2009 amateur draft and selected for the 2010 all-star futures game consisting of the best prospects in the entire minor leagues) so trading him in 2011 in exchange for a short term rental was an overly high cost to pay.

I've been strongly arguing the logic of parting with prospects for proven young players as you said, but Shields/Tatis and Beltran/Wheeler don't fit that paradigm; they were examples of teams using their prospect capital foolishly. Trading Marco Luciano, Kyle Harrison for Juan Soto, yes. But for 44 games of someone, even an all star? no thanks.

I suppose it doesn't matter, but a few comments on Beltran:

1) He was an all-star nine of the 13 seasons (2004-2016) that sandwiched his Giants career, including 2011, his Giants year.
2) Beltran was with the Mets earlier in 2011, and he slightly outperformed his Mets line (.298/.391/.513/.904) compared with his SF line (.323/.369/.551/.920).
3) Beltran significantly outperformed his career line (.279/.350/.486/.837).
4) Zack Wheeler had a 3.99 ERA for San Jose that year, and was 7-5. After six seasons in MLB, he had a 22-23 record and missed a season for surgery.  In other words, his breakout year didn't come for seven years after he was traded.

At the end of the day, the Giants were 68-60 and 1.5 games back when Beltran arrived.  44 games later, they were 86-76, and finished 8 games out.

[Mick]

Well, how about Shields to the White Sox for some guy named Fernando Tatis Jr.

The world is littered with trades that look ridiculous in hindsight, but statistically, a young player who is already one of major league’s bests is a surer bet than a prospect, no matter how promising.

BC

The problem is that at the time Shields was already 34 years old. The previous season he had an ERA+ of 95 (meaning 5% under league average) and at the time of the trade his ERA+ was 93 (7% under league average), so you're giving up a promising prospect (albeit one that wasn't expected to reach the heights that he has) for an aging, below average, declining player.

Beltran was indeed an elite player but strictly a rental; he played a total of 44 games for San Francisco. Wheeler was an elite prospect (he'd been picked #6 overall in the 2009 amateur draft and selected for the 2010 all-star futures game consisting of the best prospects in the entire minor leagues) so trading him in 2011 in exchange for a short term rental was an overly high cost to pay.

I've been strongly arguing the logic of parting with prospects for proven young players as you said, but Shields/Tatis and Beltran/Wheeler don't fit that paradigm; they were examples of teams using their prospect capital foolishly. Trading Marco Luciano, Kyle Harrison for Juan Soto, yes. But for 44 games of someone, even an all star? no thanks.

I suppose it doesn't matter, but a few comments on Beltran:

1) He was an all-star nine of the 13 seasons (2004-2016) that sandwiched his Giants career, including 2011, his Giants year.
2) Beltran was with the Mets earlier in 2011, and he slightly outperformed his Mets line (.298/.391/.513/.904) compared with his SF line (.323/.369/.551/.920).
3) Beltran significantly outperformed his career line (.279/.350/.486/.837).
4) Zack Wheeler had a 3.99 ERA for San Jose that year, and was 7-5. After six seasons in MLB, he had a 22-23 record and missed a season for surgery.  In other words, his breakout year didn't come for seven years after he was traded.

At the end of the day, the Giants were 68-60 and 1.5 games back when Beltran arrived.  44 games later, they were 86-76, and finished 8 games out.