05-13-2022, 07:01 AM
My view is that Russian advances in the past ~45 days in the Dombas have been pretty limited.
They attacked both west and south from Izyum. No idea why they attacked west. The southern attack was meant to cut off and isolate the whole UA position in the Donbass. Both attacks got around 30-40km and have stalled. Without a major infusion of forces this RA attack has stalled.
The Russians have also attacked West in the Northern Donbass. These attacks have also gained about 30-40km. The problem is that all of the ground taken has been east of the Donets river. No real ground has been taken West of the river. It is a pretty logical defensive point that runs through the Donbas all of the way to Severodonetsk. It doesn't take a military genius to figure out that this is the line the UA is planning to defend and have defended quite well in the eastern part of the Donbass.
Until the Russians cross the Donets or really resume the attack south from Izyum this is all just a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing.
OTOH, the UA has gained similar territory to the RA around Kharkiv. They have also taken 30-40km of ground and have now reached the Donets from the west. It looks like a matter of time until they push the RA across the border in this sector. My guess is they they drive south to expel the RA from Izyum and drive all of the their forces east of the Donets. And we should note that the UA is doing this with a pretty small force.
My view is that this battlefield is still pretty fluid. The RA is not grinding down the UA. They are taking in places and losing in places. The UA is likely getting stronger as conscripts get experience and western aid is flowing in. The RA is likely getting weaker as they struggle to replace lost men and equipment.
My view is that the UA is winning FWIW.
They attacked both west and south from Izyum. No idea why they attacked west. The southern attack was meant to cut off and isolate the whole UA position in the Donbass. Both attacks got around 30-40km and have stalled. Without a major infusion of forces this RA attack has stalled.
The Russians have also attacked West in the Northern Donbass. These attacks have also gained about 30-40km. The problem is that all of the ground taken has been east of the Donets river. No real ground has been taken West of the river. It is a pretty logical defensive point that runs through the Donbas all of the way to Severodonetsk. It doesn't take a military genius to figure out that this is the line the UA is planning to defend and have defended quite well in the eastern part of the Donbass.
Until the Russians cross the Donets or really resume the attack south from Izyum this is all just a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing.
OTOH, the UA has gained similar territory to the RA around Kharkiv. They have also taken 30-40km of ground and have now reached the Donets from the west. It looks like a matter of time until they push the RA across the border in this sector. My guess is they they drive south to expel the RA from Izyum and drive all of the their forces east of the Donets. And we should note that the UA is doing this with a pretty small force.
My view is that this battlefield is still pretty fluid. The RA is not grinding down the UA. They are taking in places and losing in places. The UA is likely getting stronger as conscripts get experience and western aid is flowing in. The RA is likely getting weaker as they struggle to replace lost men and equipment.
My view is that the UA is winning FWIW.