[Goose]

Ukraine has pushed Russia back to its borders in some areas around Kharkiv. They have strategically withdrawn in some areas of the Donbas, losing single digit miles of terrain.They aren't "slowly losing the war."

And there has been ample videos of Ukrainian counter battery fire. Lots of Russian arty going boom.

With respect, look at the amount of land area that is colored red from week to week. It is slowly increasing. I am not minimizing what Ukraine has accomplished. They are doing a great job and in places have driven the Russians back. However, you must remember that the Russians weren't there at the start of the war. Driving them back is great, but it is just restoring the status quo ante. I wish it weren't so, but it is. It is also not fatal. Russia hasn't captured anything recently that is a strategic defeat. Interestingly enough, as Germany retreated from Poland, the government repeatedly announced "strategic retreats" and "rationalizing the lines". 5/10 km is 3 to 6 miles. Single digits. Doing that repeatedly is slowly losing the war.

What is important is what Ukraine does next. They are trying to develop the ability to push back hard. As I said, this can't be done overnight. We collectively (or at least I) kind of expect when we deliver some new capability it will immediately be reflected on the battlefield. In general, it will not, because integrating a new weapon takes time in any army. It is even harder to to while you are fully engaged in an active war. Ukraine has already accomplished more than anybody though possible. They are, IMHO, on a path to victory. They just need to buy the time to get there.

You are correct, there is lots of video showing shells dropping on Russian artillery positions. In war, both sides fight. However, as long as the Ukrainians are reporting "Russian artillery is active along the entire line of contact", it isn't being nearly effective enough. We have shipped, and continue to ship, many firefinder radars. Ukraine also has drones of various types. When this equipment is integrated in their forces properly, by the time any Russian 152mm shell has reached it's apex, a fire mission should be on the way to an appropriate counter battery unit. OK, this is an ideal case, but as long as Russian artillery can fire on Ukrainian positions with apparent impunity, there is a big, big problem. The Ukrainians know this. That is why they have asked for what they did. Let's hope it got there soon enough to do the job.

[Goose]

Ukraine has pushed Russia back to its borders in some areas around Kharkiv. They have strategically withdrawn in some areas of the Donbas, losing single digit miles of terrain.They aren't "slowly losing the war."

And there has been ample videos of Ukrainian counter battery fire. Lots of Russian arty going boom.

With respect, look at the amount of land area that is colored red from week to week. It is slowly increasing. I am not minimizing what Ukraine has accomplished. They are doing a great job and in places have driven the Russians back. However, you must remember that the Russians weren't there at the start of the war. Driving them back is great, but it is just restoring the status quo ante. I wish it weren't so, but it is. It is also not fatal. Russia hasn't captured anything recently that is a strategic defeat. Interestingly enough, as Germany retreated from Poland, the government repeatedly announced "strategic retreats" and "rationalizing the lines". 5/10 km is 3 to 6 miles. Single digits. Doing that repeatedly is slowly losing the war.

What is important is what Ukraine does next. They are trying to develop the ability to push back hard. As I said, this can't be done overnight. We collectively (or at least I) kind of expect when we deliver some new capability it will immediately be reflected on the battlefield. In general, it will not, because integrating a new weapon takes time in any army. It is even harder to to while you are fully engaged in an active war. Ukraine has already accomplished more than anybody though possible. They are, IMHO, on a path to victory. They just need to buy the time to get there.

You are correct, there is lots of video showing shells dropping on Russian artillery positions. In war, both sides fight. However, as long as the Ukrainians are reporting "Russian artillery is active along the entire line of contact", it isn't being nearly effective enough. We have shipped, and continue to ship, many firefinder radars. Ukraine also has drones of various types. When this equipment is integrated in their forces properly, by the time any Russian 152mm shell has reached it's apex, a fire mission should be on the way to an appropriate counter battery unit. OK, this is an ideal case, but as long as Russian artillery can fire on Ukrainian positions with apparent impunity, there is a big, big problem. The Ukrainians know this. That is why they have asked for what they did. Let's hope it got there soon enough to do the job.