[Goose]

That being said, on the biggest stories of the war so far, they have turned to be pretty good for Ukraine and pretty accurate.  Ukraine winning the battle of Kiev was a big deal.  Sinking the Moskva was important but not critical tactically, but a big deal symbolically.  Against that, Russia has captured Ukrainian territory in the South and East.  All in all, this is going better for Ukraine than most people expected, but the war is far from over, and I think there is probably a better than even chance that at the end of this, Ukraine’s territorial integrity is further compromised.


BC

I think your statement above is a good status report on where the war is today. More importantly, any evaluation going forward has to say, IMHO, that presently Ukraine is slowly losing the war. Russia is nibbling away in the Donbas. They are using the tried and true Russian approach of attacking everywhere and reinforcing success. Fortunately for Ukraine, Russia's tactical limitations limit their ability to exploit success. When this part of the war started the fear was that Russia would find a weak point, break through and massively reinforce that breakthrough, isolating Ukrainian troops and quickly encircling them.

During WW II, especially near the end, Russia would do exactly that. Their breakthroughs were accomplished by lining up artillery wheel to wheel and just pounding the Germans until some formation failed or was destroyed. As the Ukrainians are reporting, Russian artillery is "active along the entire line of contact". For quite a while, Germany possessed mobile striking power that they held in reserve until Russia broke the line someplace. When that happened, the mobile armored force would be committed to plug the gap. That actually worked quite well for a long time, but eventually the armored forces wore down and this no longer worked. Then Germany (having no mobile armored reserves) would then have to retreat along a broad front to avoid encirclement and total defeat. They lost the war 50km at a time.

Ukraine doesn't have a mobile armored force, but Russia also doesn't have the ability (apparently) to massively (and quickly) reinforce a breakthrough, so the Ukrainians still have to pull back along a broad front to avoid encirclement (or a salient that stretches them too thin). They just don't have to fall back as far. They are losing 5/10 km at a time. This is much more similar to WW I where neither side could exploit a breakthrough fast enough to prevent their opponent building a second line of defense to fall back into. All attacks had such massive buildups there were no surprises. This is pretty much where this war is ATM.

Ukraine has the potential to build up striking forces that can shatter the Russian methodical, grinding advances. They are now getting weapons and support to do exactly that, but doing so takes time. The Ukrainians are holding on as best they can while they do this. I am sure most of you have read about the Russian general who pointed out that the Russians could create more armored divisions but to create one using weapons from existing stocks would take 90 days. Ukraine is not exempt from that math, and I think the general was being a bit optimistic. Right now, given the reports we hear from Ukraine, it appears that they aren't making much of a dent in Russian artillery capability. Still no counter-battery. This may be a training issue and they just aren't ready. They really need this capability ASAP, because without it things will continue as-is.

As long as Russia is willing (and able) to absorb the losses associated with their tactics, they will continue to "win". Ukraine shows every intention to hold on and counter-attack when they have enough muscle to actually drive the Russians back. Right now, Ukraine can achieve local success but not strategic success. They obviously intend to change that. If Putin achieves his aims, whatever they are, and goes on the defensive, that will make Ukraine's task much harder. Let's hope Ukraine can develop enough combat power to push back hard, and that they can achieve the mobile breakthrough Russia cannot. If this war ends before that happens, BC will be correct about Ukraine's territorial losses.

[Goose]

That being said, on the biggest stories of the war so far, they have turned to be pretty good for Ukraine and pretty accurate.  Ukraine winning the battle of Kiev was a big deal.  Sinking the Moskva was important but not critical tactically, but a big deal symbolically.  Against that, Russia has captured Ukrainian territory in the South and East.  All in all, this is going better for Ukraine than most people expected, but the war is far from over, and I think there is probably a better than even chance that at the end of this, Ukraine’s territorial integrity is further compromised.


BC

I think your statement above is a good status report on where the war is today. More importantly, any evaluation going forward has to say, IMHO, that presently Ukraine is slowly losing the war. Russia is nibbling away in the Donbas. They are using the tried and true Russian approach of attacking everywhere and reinforcing success. Fortunately for Ukraine, Russia's tactical limitations limit their ability to exploit success. When this part of the war started the fear was that Russia would find a weak point, break through and massively reinforce that breakthrough, isolating Ukrainian troops and quickly encircling them.

During WW II, especially near the end, Russia would do exactly that. Their breakthroughs were accomplished by lining up artillery wheel to wheel and just pounding the Germans until some formation failed or was destroyed. As the Ukrainians are reporting, Russian artillery is "active along the entire line of contact". For quite a while, Germany possessed mobile striking power that they held in reserve until Russia broke the line someplace. When that happened, the mobile armored force would be committed to plug the gap. That actually worked quite well for a long time, but eventually the armored forces wore down and this no longer worked. Then Germany (having no mobile armored reserves) would then have to retreat along a broad front to avoid encirclement and total defeat. They lost the war 50km at a time.

Ukraine doesn't have a mobile armored force, but Russia also doesn't have the ability (apparently) to massively (and quickly) reinforce a breakthrough, so the Ukrainians still have to pull back along a broad front to avoid encirclement (or a salient that stretches them too thin). They just don't have to fall back as far. They are losing 5/10 km at a time. This is much more similar to WW I where neither side could exploit a breakthrough fast enough to prevent their opponent building a second line of defense to fall back into. All attacks had such massive buildups there were no surprises. This is pretty much where this war is ATM.

Ukraine has the potential to build up striking forces that can shatter the Russian methodical, grinding advances. They are now getting weapons and support to do exactly that, but doing so takes time. The Ukrainians are holding on as best they can while they do this. I am sure most of you have read about the Russian general who pointed out that the Russians could create more armored divisions but to create one using weapons from existing stocks would take 90 days. Ukraine is not exempt from that math, and I think the general was being a bit optimistic. Right now, given the reports we hear from Ukraine, it appears that they aren't making much of a dent in Russian artillery capability. Still no counter-battery. This may be a training issue and they just aren't ready. They really need this capability ASAP, because without it things will continue as-is.

As long as Russia is willing (and able) to absorb the losses associated with their tactics, they will continue to "win". Ukraine shows every intention to hold on and counter-attack when they have enough muscle to actually drive the Russians back. Right now, Ukraine can achieve local success but not strategic success. They obviously intend to change that. If Putin achieves his aims, whatever they are, and goes on the defensive, that will make Ukraine's task much harder. Let's hope Ukraine can develop enough combat power to push back hard, and that they can achieve the mobile breakthrough Russia cannot. If this war ends before that happens, BC will be correct about Ukraine's territorial losses.