[dabigv13]

So the US just had a lucky hunch Russia was going to proceed. In any case, whether it was a lucky hunch or not (very much doubt it was), I think it helped.

Consider the counterfactual, does it help the US and Ukraine more for us to have said nothing in the lead up? Should we have not warned about possible chemical weapons usage?

I dont think it's a surprise to the Russians that the US is giving Intel to Ukraine, Russia doesn't need any more help to drive their rhetoric since their domestic audience is captive to lying state media anyway, and what has been disclosed doesn't sacrifice any human sources. So I only see upside.

[dabigv13]

So the US just had a lucky hunch Russia was going to proceed. In any case, whether it was a lucky hunch or not (very much doubt it was), I think it helped.

Consider the counterfactual, does it help the US and Ukraine more for us to have said nothing in the lead up? Should we have not warned about possible chemical weapons usage?

I dont think it's a surprise to the Russians that the US is giving Intel to Ukraine, Russia doesn't need any more help to drive their rhetoric since their domestic audience is captive to lying state media anyway, and what has been disclosed doesn't sacrifice any human sources. So I only see upside.