[Genuine Realist]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-...a-sinking/

Anyone else bothered by this?

As has become the rule, not the exception, with mainstream news, it is unsourced. Quoting myself, when you read an unsourced news story, you are actually reading an unsigned op-ed. So why it appears in print in the first place is a question.

But more seriously, my suspicion is that this is a leak of classified material, that might compromise other intelligence operations and maybe endanger someone's life, if there is a humint source. For years, the major newspapers have treated the CIA and NSA as if they were the enemy - even when there's a real enemy, such as Russia or Al-Qaeda. Not good.

It is not news to the Russians that the US locates (or tries real hard to) Russian warships in the Black Sea using national technical means on a near real time basis. Supposedly the Ukrainians asked the ident of a target at a certain lat-long and we gave it to them. There are no surprises there. As other articles have pointed out as well, the Ukrainians undoubtedly possess HUMINT sources in the Russian infrastructure that can provide lots of data about lots of things. Based on the number of spies the Ukraine has busted in this war, visa-versa is also true. Equally importantly, GCHQ and the BND have extensive efforts in that part of Eastern Europe. I suspect both of these agencies make a substantial contribution to the overall NATO intelligence assessment and that some of that is given to the Ukrainians.

However, the location of Russian general officers in near real time is undoubtedly determined by communication security breaches and Ukrainian HUMINT. Ukraine has shown they have a significant effort and capability in using Russian communications insecurity with no help from anybody. To what extent, if any, they get near real time help from anybody else in this area is unclear.

If one wants to worry about anything I would worry more about the administration's apparent willingness to publicize anything at all about our intelligence relationship with the Ukraine. There is no doubt this information was "shared" for PR purposes to reassure the public that we were actually doing something in this area. The fact it got printed was both expected and desired. The Russians probably already know what we are doing and not doing, so no real damage there. However, it is never wise to simplify the Russian assessment problem by confirming or denying anything. Doing so may remove existing doubts that Russia has about how Ukraine knows certain things. OTOH, it may be that this whole story is disinformation to cover up the fact Ukraine gets the data another way. Wheels within wheels.

The thought that it's an authorized leak is hardly reassuring. I'm reminded of all the crowing that the Obama Administration did about the OBL operation, which resulted in a Pakistani physician, a friend of the US, ending up in prison.

Biden's political problems are beyond the scope of this line and likely verboten. But they are not going to be solved by anything that happens in the Ukraine

[Genuine Realist]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-...a-sinking/

Anyone else bothered by this?

As has become the rule, not the exception, with mainstream news, it is unsourced. Quoting myself, when you read an unsourced news story, you are actually reading an unsigned op-ed. So why it appears in print in the first place is a question.

But more seriously, my suspicion is that this is a leak of classified material, that might compromise other intelligence operations and maybe endanger someone's life, if there is a humint source. For years, the major newspapers have treated the CIA and NSA as if they were the enemy - even when there's a real enemy, such as Russia or Al-Qaeda. Not good.

It is not news to the Russians that the US locates (or tries real hard to) Russian warships in the Black Sea using national technical means on a near real time basis. Supposedly the Ukrainians asked the ident of a target at a certain lat-long and we gave it to them. There are no surprises there. As other articles have pointed out as well, the Ukrainians undoubtedly possess HUMINT sources in the Russian infrastructure that can provide lots of data about lots of things. Based on the number of spies the Ukraine has busted in this war, visa-versa is also true. Equally importantly, GCHQ and the BND have extensive efforts in that part of Eastern Europe. I suspect both of these agencies make a substantial contribution to the overall NATO intelligence assessment and that some of that is given to the Ukrainians.

However, the location of Russian general officers in near real time is undoubtedly determined by communication security breaches and Ukrainian HUMINT. Ukraine has shown they have a significant effort and capability in using Russian communications insecurity with no help from anybody. To what extent, if any, they get near real time help from anybody else in this area is unclear.

If one wants to worry about anything I would worry more about the administration's apparent willingness to publicize anything at all about our intelligence relationship with the Ukraine. There is no doubt this information was "shared" for PR purposes to reassure the public that we were actually doing something in this area. The fact it got printed was both expected and desired. The Russians probably already know what we are doing and not doing, so no real damage there. However, it is never wise to simplify the Russian assessment problem by confirming or denying anything. Doing so may remove existing doubts that Russia has about how Ukraine knows certain things. OTOH, it may be that this whole story is disinformation to cover up the fact Ukraine gets the data another way. Wheels within wheels.

The thought that it's an authorized leak is hardly reassuring. I'm reminded of all the crowing that the Obama Administration did about the OBL operation, which resulted in a Pakistani physician, a friend of the US, ending up in prison.

Biden's political problems are beyond the scope of this line and likely verboten. But they are not going to be solved by anything that happens in the Ukraine