[Goose]

NBC, WaPo, NYT all had stories on this within an hour or two of each other. These aren't unauthorized leaks. Biden wants Russia and the world to know that we are behind Ukraine all the way up to the limit of US troops on the ground.

Or, alternatively he wanted the public to know this so that they would get off the administration's case about not doing so. This is the possibility I don't much like.

Russia undoubtedly knows that the US is supplying Intel to the Ukrainians and have known this probably for a while.

True.

Biden wants them to know, that we want them to know.

Or, more probably IMHO, Biden et al want the good publicity in the USA.

This Intel forward strategy probably helped consolidate support for Ukraine and the US position on supplying Ukraine with weapons as soon as Russia did invade, on the day the German (foreign? Intel?) minister was in Kiev. And it may have helped head off Russian chemical weapons use. I think Russia is used to dictating the information space and now they aren't, and that has thrown a spanner in the works.

Not sure what you mean here. If you mean the Biden administration letting the world know that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine, it is unclear to me that "Intel forward" had much to do with that. It was obvious to everybody involved that Russia was building up the capability to invade. Forces were moved over a period of months. The existence of this capability was no Intel feat, but it undoubtedly led to planning for that eventuality. That was a very good thing which probably did have some of the results you outline, but the buildup was hardly a secret.

Intelligence is often wrapped up in assessment of capability vs intention. Capability may be difficult to measure exactly but in this case the existence of substantial capability was undeniable. The fact that Putin actually intended to do it (intention) was IMHO a lucky (and conservative) guess. That fact was so closely held that probably only Putin knew what he was actually going to do. If the US actually had any real data to that effect, I would be very, very impressed.

[Goose]

NBC, WaPo, NYT all had stories on this within an hour or two of each other. These aren't unauthorized leaks. Biden wants Russia and the world to know that we are behind Ukraine all the way up to the limit of US troops on the ground.

Or, alternatively he wanted the public to know this so that they would get off the administration's case about not doing so. This is the possibility I don't much like.

Russia undoubtedly knows that the US is supplying Intel to the Ukrainians and have known this probably for a while.

True.

Biden wants them to know, that we want them to know.

Or, more probably IMHO, Biden et al want the good publicity in the USA.

This Intel forward strategy probably helped consolidate support for Ukraine and the US position on supplying Ukraine with weapons as soon as Russia did invade, on the day the German (foreign? Intel?) minister was in Kiev. And it may have helped head off Russian chemical weapons use. I think Russia is used to dictating the information space and now they aren't, and that has thrown a spanner in the works.

Not sure what you mean here. If you mean the Biden administration letting the world know that Russia was preparing to invade Ukraine, it is unclear to me that "Intel forward" had much to do with that. It was obvious to everybody involved that Russia was building up the capability to invade. Forces were moved over a period of months. The existence of this capability was no Intel feat, but it undoubtedly led to planning for that eventuality. That was a very good thing which probably did have some of the results you outline, but the buildup was hardly a secret.

Intelligence is often wrapped up in assessment of capability vs intention. Capability may be difficult to measure exactly but in this case the existence of substantial capability was undeniable. The fact that Putin actually intended to do it (intention) was IMHO a lucky (and conservative) guess. That fact was so closely held that probably only Putin knew what he was actually going to do. If the US actually had any real data to that effect, I would be very, very impressed.