[Goose]

The ability of UKR to push the Russians back is highly dependent on the area.


UKR is already pushing back the Russian army around Kharkiv.  In fact, given the rivers and the bridges the Russian army is in a tricky spot here and it may become a full on rout in coming weeks.



OTOH, in the south the UKR army is making gains around Kherson as well.  The issue is that it would be pretty easy for Russia to retreat from Kherson, blow the bridges across the Dnipro river, and have a very easily defended line.  It would be extremely hard for UKR to penetrate this line and that line would protect much of the land bridge between Crimea and the Dombas.



The question is what happens in the Dombas.    The Russian offensive there has made only limited gains.  I can certainly see a situation there where they just fall back to the heavily fortified pre-Feb lines.  But this is likely the decisive battle.



UKR would then have the option of attacking towards Mariupol from the North rather than the West.



One of the issues is that it is much harder to hold land with a civilian population against you.....

I think you are mostly correct. At one point the UKR was doing well around Kherson but as probably shifted troops North to the Donbas region. While an opposed river crossing of  the Dnipro wouldn't be easy, it can be done. Failure by Russia in the Donbas would IMHO allow Ukraine to take back the area around Mariupol and break the land bridge. Coming down from the North would avoid the hardest part of recovering Kherson Oblast. As you rightly point out, winning in Donbas is the most important thing now. If that happens, many things may be possible.

[Goose]

The ability of UKR to push the Russians back is highly dependent on the area.


UKR is already pushing back the Russian army around Kharkiv.  In fact, given the rivers and the bridges the Russian army is in a tricky spot here and it may become a full on rout in coming weeks.



OTOH, in the south the UKR army is making gains around Kherson as well.  The issue is that it would be pretty easy for Russia to retreat from Kherson, blow the bridges across the Dnipro river, and have a very easily defended line.  It would be extremely hard for UKR to penetrate this line and that line would protect much of the land bridge between Crimea and the Dombas.



The question is what happens in the Dombas.    The Russian offensive there has made only limited gains.  I can certainly see a situation there where they just fall back to the heavily fortified pre-Feb lines.  But this is likely the decisive battle.



UKR would then have the option of attacking towards Mariupol from the North rather than the West.



One of the issues is that it is much harder to hold land with a civilian population against you.....

I think you are mostly correct. At one point the UKR was doing well around Kherson but as probably shifted troops North to the Donbas region. While an opposed river crossing of  the Dnipro wouldn't be easy, it can be done. Failure by Russia in the Donbas would IMHO allow Ukraine to take back the area around Mariupol and break the land bridge. Coming down from the North would avoid the hardest part of recovering Kherson Oblast. As you rightly point out, winning in Donbas is the most important thing now. If that happens, many things may be possible.