[Softball Fan]

The big unknown is Putin's mindset.  Here is my crazy opinion.  I don't think Putin will accept defeat.  If things go really poorly and Ukraine starts to push conventional Russian forces out of its territory I expect Putin will use chemical weapons.  If that's not enough he'll start using tactical nuclear weapons.  It's not going to end well.

There's no way Putin says to his population, "OK we lost, all that was for nothing.  Let's move on".    Also if the war ends Putin knows at this point the West will hunt him down, put him in jail, and charge him with war crimes.  IMO Putin would rather start WWIII than be imprisoned for war crimes.  This scenario is still many months out. 

I  don't know the answer.   At the moment IMO the only hope is someone high up in the Russian military decides to take out Putin.  That seems like a remote possibility.

[Softball Fan]

The big unknown is Putin's mindset.  Here is my crazy opinion.  I don't think Putin will accept defeat.  If things go really poorly and Ukraine starts to push conventional Russian forces out of its territory I expect Putin will use chemical weapons.  If that's not enough he'll start using tactical nuclear weapons.  It's not going to end well.

There's no way Putin says to his population, "OK we lost, all that was for nothing.  Let's move on".    Also if the war ends Putin knows at this point the West will hunt him down, put him in jail, and charge him with war crimes.  IMO Putin would rather start WWIII than be imprisoned for war crimes.  This scenario is still many months out. 

I  don't know the answer.   At the moment IMO the only hope is someone high up in the Russian military decides to take out Putin.  That seems like a remote possibility.