[Goose]

Goose that post seems internally inconsistent. Ukraine is on a path to being a non-viable country in a year, but Russian troops will recognize they’re being routed and withdraw before then, leading to Putin’s demise. I’m less confident than you that any particular outcome will or won’t happen.

I am not confident of any particular outcome either. However, my point was that Ukraine is presently not a viable country economically. It cannot sustain itself indefinitely in that configuration. It is already asking both the US and the IMF for very big money. They can't endure a long war.

However, Russia is expending lots of it's military strength trying to occupy more Ukrainian territory. They have kind of put themselves in the "victory or death" mode, because if Russia goes on the defensive it will have to admit to it's populace that it failed in the objective to seize the Donbas. It will also have to defend against a Ukraine that has high morale with competent leadership and ever improving weapons. Russia itself will have decreasing morale and fewer weapons. It is a race. If Russia keeps attacking, the possibility of a collapse in the near term is there. If Russia goes on the defensive, the possibility of a collapse is still there (because why die in a war that you are losing), but it will possibly take longer. However, internal unrest in Russia becomes more probable too.

So, what happens? My guess is that if Russia does collapse on the Ukraine front or on the domestic political front in the next 12 months, Ukraine "wins", meaning at least substantially the borders of 24 Feb and rebuilding with mostly Russian money. If not, Ukraine will be in an economic position that will result in it's military collapse or political compromise with Russia, both of which will lead to its eclipse as an independent state (the latter not immediately, but sooner or later). I don't see this settling down to a low intensity extended war, because Ukraine can't do that economically. Ukraine would still be unable to export by sea and subject to missile bombardment. Russia would suffer neither. Russia also probably can't  continue indefinitely but it can continue economically longer than Ukraine can. The effect of sanctions and ending energy exports could also move Russia towards economic problems too, but since they aren't a democracy that won't be governing.

[Goose]

Goose that post seems internally inconsistent. Ukraine is on a path to being a non-viable country in a year, but Russian troops will recognize they’re being routed and withdraw before then, leading to Putin’s demise. I’m less confident than you that any particular outcome will or won’t happen.

I am not confident of any particular outcome either. However, my point was that Ukraine is presently not a viable country economically. It cannot sustain itself indefinitely in that configuration. It is already asking both the US and the IMF for very big money. They can't endure a long war.

However, Russia is expending lots of it's military strength trying to occupy more Ukrainian territory. They have kind of put themselves in the "victory or death" mode, because if Russia goes on the defensive it will have to admit to it's populace that it failed in the objective to seize the Donbas. It will also have to defend against a Ukraine that has high morale with competent leadership and ever improving weapons. Russia itself will have decreasing morale and fewer weapons. It is a race. If Russia keeps attacking, the possibility of a collapse in the near term is there. If Russia goes on the defensive, the possibility of a collapse is still there (because why die in a war that you are losing), but it will possibly take longer. However, internal unrest in Russia becomes more probable too.

So, what happens? My guess is that if Russia does collapse on the Ukraine front or on the domestic political front in the next 12 months, Ukraine "wins", meaning at least substantially the borders of 24 Feb and rebuilding with mostly Russian money. If not, Ukraine will be in an economic position that will result in it's military collapse or political compromise with Russia, both of which will lead to its eclipse as an independent state (the latter not immediately, but sooner or later). I don't see this settling down to a low intensity extended war, because Ukraine can't do that economically. Ukraine would still be unable to export by sea and subject to missile bombardment. Russia would suffer neither. Russia also probably can't  continue indefinitely but it can continue economically longer than Ukraine can. The effect of sanctions and ending energy exports could also move Russia towards economic problems too, but since they aren't a democracy that won't be governing.