[Goose]

They are using expensive antiship missiles in a secondary land attack role, probably because they are starting to run low on their typical guided cruise and ballistic missiles.

You noticed that too. It is really dumb because the anti-ship missiles are not precision land attack missiles. They are designed to fly to approximately a point where their target shout be "visible" and then lock on to the target using radar/optical sensors. Land attack isn't their thing.

Look to Afghanistan or Vietnam for guides of how it goes for an occupying imperial power. And Ukraine is a lot bigger and getting better more and better gear than either of those.

I don't think the analogies hold. Both Afghanistan and Vietnam were primarily agrarian societies that were not democracies. Ukraine is very different. Do not underestimate how much a decline in their standard of living will affect their perception of their government. Even the Vietnamese government agreed that their people would have stopped fighting if the had the ability to make that free choice. Vietnam and Afghanistan could conduct their "normal" economic activities pretty much unmolested during the war. The US did not cut Vietnam off from commerce, nor did Russia stop the opium trade (or any other trade AFAIK) in Afghanistan. Ukraine OTOH right now is economically wrecked and it isn't getting better. Russia is blowing things up at random and wrecking entire cities. The ports are blockaded. Totally different situation.

The fact Ukraine is getting support from the west also probably will not continue at the current level over the long hall. We will lose interest. Ukraine needs to end this war, and fortunately Russia appears to be running through it's martial resources at an alarming rate. Eventually a tipping point will be reached. The 3:1 attacker vs defender ratio does not apply to a rout. Hundreds of POWs are often guarded by a few guys. Iraqi infantry companies surrendered to a Blackhawk. Russian morale isn't great right now. Imagine what it will be like when it is clear they are getting beat. This is the way to victory. If, OTOH, the tipping point isn't reached within about a year, Ukraine is toast IMHO.

If the Russian leadership foresees  their troops are nearing collapse, they may be willing to negotiate a return to 24 Feb boundaries, fearing a worse outcome if the war continues. For Russia, keeping Crimea is an absolute requirement. The rest is fundamentally negotiable IMHO, given that they realize eradicating Ukraine is impossible. Putin will be gone by that time.

[Goose]

They are using expensive antiship missiles in a secondary land attack role, probably because they are starting to run low on their typical guided cruise and ballistic missiles.

You noticed that too. It is really dumb because the anti-ship missiles are not precision land attack missiles. They are designed to fly to approximately a point where their target shout be "visible" and then lock on to the target using radar/optical sensors. Land attack isn't their thing.

Look to Afghanistan or Vietnam for guides of how it goes for an occupying imperial power. And Ukraine is a lot bigger and getting better more and better gear than either of those.

I don't think the analogies hold. Both Afghanistan and Vietnam were primarily agrarian societies that were not democracies. Ukraine is very different. Do not underestimate how much a decline in their standard of living will affect their perception of their government. Even the Vietnamese government agreed that their people would have stopped fighting if the had the ability to make that free choice. Vietnam and Afghanistan could conduct their "normal" economic activities pretty much unmolested during the war. The US did not cut Vietnam off from commerce, nor did Russia stop the opium trade (or any other trade AFAIK) in Afghanistan. Ukraine OTOH right now is economically wrecked and it isn't getting better. Russia is blowing things up at random and wrecking entire cities. The ports are blockaded. Totally different situation.

The fact Ukraine is getting support from the west also probably will not continue at the current level over the long hall. We will lose interest. Ukraine needs to end this war, and fortunately Russia appears to be running through it's martial resources at an alarming rate. Eventually a tipping point will be reached. The 3:1 attacker vs defender ratio does not apply to a rout. Hundreds of POWs are often guarded by a few guys. Iraqi infantry companies surrendered to a Blackhawk. Russian morale isn't great right now. Imagine what it will be like when it is clear they are getting beat. This is the way to victory. If, OTOH, the tipping point isn't reached within about a year, Ukraine is toast IMHO.

If the Russian leadership foresees  their troops are nearing collapse, they may be willing to negotiate a return to 24 Feb boundaries, fearing a worse outcome if the war continues. For Russia, keeping Crimea is an absolute requirement. The rest is fundamentally negotiable IMHO, given that they realize eradicating Ukraine is impossible. Putin will be gone by that time.