05-03-2022, 10:14 AM
It will be tough for Ukraine to gain everything back in a few months. Give it a year or two though, and Russia will probably be hard pressed to continue resupplying their troops.
Russia basically mortgaged the future of their military for the next few years with an assault that used over 75% of their available forces, and is killing all of their best troops. All of the NCOs that would ostensibly be used to train new conscripts have been sent to the front. Even if Russia declares war and institutes widespread conscription they will really only be sending cannon fodder. And of course Russia is very strapped for PGMs and will have great difficulty resupplying this. They are using expensive antiship missiles in a secondary land attack role, probably because they are starting to run low on their typical guided cruise and ballistic missiles.
Look to Afghanistan or Vietnam for guides of how it goes for an occupying imperial power. And Ukraine is a lot bigger and getting better more and better gear than either of those.
Russia basically mortgaged the future of their military for the next few years with an assault that used over 75% of their available forces, and is killing all of their best troops. All of the NCOs that would ostensibly be used to train new conscripts have been sent to the front. Even if Russia declares war and institutes widespread conscription they will really only be sending cannon fodder. And of course Russia is very strapped for PGMs and will have great difficulty resupplying this. They are using expensive antiship missiles in a secondary land attack role, probably because they are starting to run low on their typical guided cruise and ballistic missiles.
Look to Afghanistan or Vietnam for guides of how it goes for an occupying imperial power. And Ukraine is a lot bigger and getting better more and better gear than either of those.