05-03-2022, 09:47 AM
I don't think the goal for Ukraine is the pre Feb 24th borders, I think it's the pre 2014 borders. Yes, Russia has taken a significant chunk of Ukraines land for now, maybe 15 to 20% or so, but keep in mind, taking ground is one thing, keeping it is another. With the sanctions, and potentially more homeland sabotage attacks, Russia has a very limited ability to replenish it's losses, and will resort to bring out old stocks of outdated equipment, all while the west continues to replenish Ukraines losses, and in some cases add to the previous levels. The damage Russia has been causing to Ukraine is sadly mostly civilian infrastructure and their economy, while Ukraine has been hitting Russias military power almost completely.
Russia found out in the first phase of the war that holding occupied territory was not only challenging, but deadly. They simply didn't have the manpower anymore to keep up their held territories in Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy Oblasts. While they've concentrated their forces on Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk, and southern Zaporzhia oblasts, they are beginning to get routed in Kharkiv. \The success of Ukrainians in that area will severely threaten the supply lines to the vanguard of Russian forces based in Izium. If that area is threatened that everything in the northeast starts crumbling for Russia.
I think the biggest point I'll make is that Ukraine's main strategy in this war has been giving up land for time, so they are always in an advantageous position against Russians, causing as much harm as possible, in as efficient manner as possible. They have been mostly successful at this. While for the next couple weeks we might see minor advances by the Russians, I think after that time the tide will turn, and Ukraine will be advancing on most fronts.
Russia found out in the first phase of the war that holding occupied territory was not only challenging, but deadly. They simply didn't have the manpower anymore to keep up their held territories in Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy Oblasts. While they've concentrated their forces on Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk, and southern Zaporzhia oblasts, they are beginning to get routed in Kharkiv. \The success of Ukrainians in that area will severely threaten the supply lines to the vanguard of Russian forces based in Izium. If that area is threatened that everything in the northeast starts crumbling for Russia.
I think the biggest point I'll make is that Ukraine's main strategy in this war has been giving up land for time, so they are always in an advantageous position against Russians, causing as much harm as possible, in as efficient manner as possible. They have been mostly successful at this. While for the next couple weeks we might see minor advances by the Russians, I think after that time the tide will turn, and Ukraine will be advancing on most fronts.