[Goose]

Yeah, I forgot about the subs. Though Block V Tomahawks could theoretically reach Novorossiysk and I wouldn't put it past Russia having maintenance issues precluding use of their whole fleet.

Still though, doing substantial damage to the Russian surface fleet would cripple their ability to resupply units in Crimea and Southern Ukraine, which significantly enables a successful Ukrainian counterattack in these areas, and that very well could settle into a long war of attrition.

Coastal missiles or Russian air force could always be a threat to Ukrainian sea traffic as well, regardless of Russian subs or surface ships, so I think it is correct that really only a treaty can open up Ukraine to substantial commercial sea traffic.

I totally agree with you that the air threat is also an issue. One big aspect of the problem is not how many ships Russia can sink, it is what the threat does to insurance rates. No grain ship is going to pay the exorbitant rates it would cost to export from Odesa.

Equally unfortunately for Ukraine, even if rail transport to Europe was greatly improved and the gauge throughout Ukraine converted to "standard" (something that I think will happen if Ukraine survives this war), rail transport is always going to be significantly more expensive than ship transport, unless the destination is in Europe anyway. Even then it still may be cheaper to go by ship. That is another reason Ukraine can't sit still for the loss of Mariupol. Transporting all the grain grown in eastern Ukraine by rail to Odesa adds significantly to the cost, even if Odesa and the rail system could handle the traffic, which ATM they can't. Loading in Mariupol obviates those issues.

Ukraine really needs a peace treaty/cease fire agreement. Endless war won't work for them at all. Equally, they need assurance that Russia isn't going to do anything like this again. No commercial venture is going to invest big bucks in Ukraine if it is 50-50 that it will get blown up in 10 years. The military situation in Ukraine is complicated and serious enough. The "How does this end?" question IMHO is even harder.

[Goose]

Yeah, I forgot about the subs. Though Block V Tomahawks could theoretically reach Novorossiysk and I wouldn't put it past Russia having maintenance issues precluding use of their whole fleet.

Still though, doing substantial damage to the Russian surface fleet would cripple their ability to resupply units in Crimea and Southern Ukraine, which significantly enables a successful Ukrainian counterattack in these areas, and that very well could settle into a long war of attrition.

Coastal missiles or Russian air force could always be a threat to Ukrainian sea traffic as well, regardless of Russian subs or surface ships, so I think it is correct that really only a treaty can open up Ukraine to substantial commercial sea traffic.

I totally agree with you that the air threat is also an issue. One big aspect of the problem is not how many ships Russia can sink, it is what the threat does to insurance rates. No grain ship is going to pay the exorbitant rates it would cost to export from Odesa.

Equally unfortunately for Ukraine, even if rail transport to Europe was greatly improved and the gauge throughout Ukraine converted to "standard" (something that I think will happen if Ukraine survives this war), rail transport is always going to be significantly more expensive than ship transport, unless the destination is in Europe anyway. Even then it still may be cheaper to go by ship. That is another reason Ukraine can't sit still for the loss of Mariupol. Transporting all the grain grown in eastern Ukraine by rail to Odesa adds significantly to the cost, even if Odesa and the rail system could handle the traffic, which ATM they can't. Loading in Mariupol obviates those issues.

Ukraine really needs a peace treaty/cease fire agreement. Endless war won't work for them at all. Equally, they need assurance that Russia isn't going to do anything like this again. No commercial venture is going to invest big bucks in Ukraine if it is 50-50 that it will get blown up in 10 years. The military situation in Ukraine is complicated and serious enough. The "How does this end?" question IMHO is even harder.