[Goose]

I think the quickest and easiest way to break the Black Sea blockade is getting Ukraine better long range antiship missiles. It's a threshold we've already crossed, though only with short range missiles so far, and a capability Ukraine already possess, although apparently with only limited ammo. 

Nope. None of that matters. The real blockade is already fundamentally the 4th Independent Submarine Brigade based in Novorossiysk. There are six relatively new (2014 or later) Kilo class submarines. The Black Sea is an ideal operating area for these submarines. You basically can't find them, and there is nobody in the Black Sea who has the wherewithal to look in any case. No cruise missile in the world is going to lock on to a snorkel mast, and probably not a Kilo class on the surface for that matter. Too small a radar cross section too close to the water. To even fire the missile requires knowing where the submarine will surface to charge batteries, and when. These are activities that no sane sub would do anywhere near the Ukraine. Ukraine has no shot against these units. None.

The best hope of breaking the blockade by these submarines, assuming NATO can get involved to make it possible at all, would be to attack Novorossiysk. This is a Russian city quite far from Ukraine, and you would need to blow up the support facilities. The other hope would be that the subs just wear out and need maintenance that can't be done locally. Pretty unlikely. The only thing that prevents this "fleet in being" from blockading Ukraine is a peace treaty/cease fire.

[Goose]

I think the quickest and easiest way to break the Black Sea blockade is getting Ukraine better long range antiship missiles. It's a threshold we've already crossed, though only with short range missiles so far, and a capability Ukraine already possess, although apparently with only limited ammo. 

Nope. None of that matters. The real blockade is already fundamentally the 4th Independent Submarine Brigade based in Novorossiysk. There are six relatively new (2014 or later) Kilo class submarines. The Black Sea is an ideal operating area for these submarines. You basically can't find them, and there is nobody in the Black Sea who has the wherewithal to look in any case. No cruise missile in the world is going to lock on to a snorkel mast, and probably not a Kilo class on the surface for that matter. Too small a radar cross section too close to the water. To even fire the missile requires knowing where the submarine will surface to charge batteries, and when. These are activities that no sane sub would do anywhere near the Ukraine. Ukraine has no shot against these units. None.

The best hope of breaking the blockade by these submarines, assuming NATO can get involved to make it possible at all, would be to attack Novorossiysk. This is a Russian city quite far from Ukraine, and you would need to blow up the support facilities. The other hope would be that the subs just wear out and need maintenance that can't be done locally. Pretty unlikely. The only thing that prevents this "fleet in being" from blockading Ukraine is a peace treaty/cease fire.