[Goose]

I don't think those 1,800 troops are all Russians per se.  I think all but a tiny fraction are ethnic Moldovans who live in Transnistria but who were granted Russian passports.  Ukraine has refused transport of Russian soldiers since 2015.  The Transnistrian army is 4,500 to 7,500 troops. Moldova itself only has 6,000 troops.  Russia provides free natural gas to Transnistria and supplements the pensions of older folks.  Transnistrians are largely Russian speakers.  Russia's annexation of Crimea transformed the Moldovan orientation from Russia to Western Europe and Moldova signed a free trade agreement with the EU in 2014 (though they don't have NATO plans).  As a result of the Crimean annexation, the contraband routes through Transnistria came to a halt (it was had been used to smuggle for nearly three decades).  70%+ of Transnistrian exports go to Western Europe.

https://theconversation.com/4-things-to-...oon-182030 confirms your analysis that the 1800 aren't actually part of the "regular" Russian military. Moldova doesn't have the wherewithal to fight even Transnistria, but Ukraine certainly does. Obviously Ukraine doesn't want to do so, but I am pretty sure they would make short work of what is there.

Two days ago, Russia said they wanted to avoid war with Moldova.  Therefore, war with Moldova is imminent.

Sadly, you are probably correct. Russia originally planned a rush to Odesa supported from the Black Sea in so far as possible. When that didn't work, they needed a "Plan B". This is probably it. One real danger here is that somehow Romania (NATO) becomes embroiled in defending Moldova. If Transnistria attacks Moldova but not Ukraine, does Ukraine intervene? If not, does Romania? Russia taking over all of Moldova isn't really acceptable to either Ukraine or Romania. Ukraine is fighting for it's life already, so expanding the war isn't ideal but may be necessary. Obviously if Ukraine is attacked, they will respond, but if they are not???

Moldova is almost entirely landlocked, with a small access to the Black Sea courtesy of Ukraine. Even if the "Russians" already in Transnistria took over Moldova, they are surrounded by Ukraine and NATO. Hard to imagine that could last long. In theory, Russia could conduct an amphibious landing WEST of Odesa to open an over-the-beach supply route into Moldova. That plan would provide a reason to blow up Ukrainian supply routes to the west, which otherwise wouldn't be as important. Thus the attack on the rail bridge. Moskva was operating about 20 miles off the coast south of that area when it was struck by Ukraine. It does make one wonder.

[Goose]

I don't think those 1,800 troops are all Russians per se.  I think all but a tiny fraction are ethnic Moldovans who live in Transnistria but who were granted Russian passports.  Ukraine has refused transport of Russian soldiers since 2015.  The Transnistrian army is 4,500 to 7,500 troops. Moldova itself only has 6,000 troops.  Russia provides free natural gas to Transnistria and supplements the pensions of older folks.  Transnistrians are largely Russian speakers.  Russia's annexation of Crimea transformed the Moldovan orientation from Russia to Western Europe and Moldova signed a free trade agreement with the EU in 2014 (though they don't have NATO plans).  As a result of the Crimean annexation, the contraband routes through Transnistria came to a halt (it was had been used to smuggle for nearly three decades).  70%+ of Transnistrian exports go to Western Europe.

https://theconversation.com/4-things-to-...oon-182030 confirms your analysis that the 1800 aren't actually part of the "regular" Russian military. Moldova doesn't have the wherewithal to fight even Transnistria, but Ukraine certainly does. Obviously Ukraine doesn't want to do so, but I am pretty sure they would make short work of what is there.

Two days ago, Russia said they wanted to avoid war with Moldova.  Therefore, war with Moldova is imminent.

Sadly, you are probably correct. Russia originally planned a rush to Odesa supported from the Black Sea in so far as possible. When that didn't work, they needed a "Plan B". This is probably it. One real danger here is that somehow Romania (NATO) becomes embroiled in defending Moldova. If Transnistria attacks Moldova but not Ukraine, does Ukraine intervene? If not, does Romania? Russia taking over all of Moldova isn't really acceptable to either Ukraine or Romania. Ukraine is fighting for it's life already, so expanding the war isn't ideal but may be necessary. Obviously if Ukraine is attacked, they will respond, but if they are not???

Moldova is almost entirely landlocked, with a small access to the Black Sea courtesy of Ukraine. Even if the "Russians" already in Transnistria took over Moldova, they are surrounded by Ukraine and NATO. Hard to imagine that could last long. In theory, Russia could conduct an amphibious landing WEST of Odesa to open an over-the-beach supply route into Moldova. That plan would provide a reason to blow up Ukrainian supply routes to the west, which otherwise wouldn't be as important. Thus the attack on the rail bridge. Moskva was operating about 20 miles off the coast south of that area when it was struck by Ukraine. It does make one wonder.