[Mick]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...wsrc%5Etfw

It appears that the Russians hit the bridge hard enough that it is closed. Some sites (based in Russia it would seem) are saying it was "destroyed". From the U-Tube video it looks like it was damaged significantly but is repairable. Getting the railway back running with speed but not weight restrictions looks feasible IMHO. No weight restrictions is a big deal. Of course, when you are at war things are both easier and harder. The MOW folks will not bitch about working overtime but many of them may have picked up guns and gone to fight. This kind of attack by Russia is long overdue. Very concerning when they succeed, but so far the successes are few. Let's hope it stays that way.

Russia appears to be hell-bent to start a war in Moldova. At first glance, the 1800 Russians in Transdniestria are in a horrible position. They are trapped between Ukraine and Moldova with no obvious supply route back to Russia. There just aren't enough of them to invade anybody else really, and just holding on in Transdniestria without outside help looks very iffy to me. Before the war, they could be supplied by air, but right now flying over Ukraine isn't a good idea. As a distraction to Ukraine and a way to tie down forces, it may kind of make sense, but I wouldn't want to be one of those 1800.

I don't think those 1,800 troops are all Russians per se.  I think all but a tiny fraction are ethnic Moldovans who live in Transnistria but who were granted Russian passports.  Ukraine has refused transport of Russian soldiers since 2015.  The Transnistrian army is 4,500 to 7,500 troops. Moldova itself only has 6,000 troops.  Russia provides free natural gas to Transnistria and supplements the pensions of older folks.  Transnistrians are largely Russian speakers.  Russia's annexation of Crimea transformed the Moldovan orientation from Russia to Western Europe and Moldova signed a free trade agreement with the EU in 2014 (though they don't have NATO plans).  As a result of the Crimean annexation, the contraband routes through Transnistria came to a halt (it was had been used to smuggle for nearly three decades).  70%+ of Transnistrian exports go to Western Europe.

Two days ago, Russia said they wanted to avoid war with Moldova. Therefore, war with Moldova is imminent.

[Mick]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/...wsrc%5Etfw

It appears that the Russians hit the bridge hard enough that it is closed. Some sites (based in Russia it would seem) are saying it was "destroyed". From the U-Tube video it looks like it was damaged significantly but is repairable. Getting the railway back running with speed but not weight restrictions looks feasible IMHO. No weight restrictions is a big deal. Of course, when you are at war things are both easier and harder. The MOW folks will not bitch about working overtime but many of them may have picked up guns and gone to fight. This kind of attack by Russia is long overdue. Very concerning when they succeed, but so far the successes are few. Let's hope it stays that way.

Russia appears to be hell-bent to start a war in Moldova. At first glance, the 1800 Russians in Transdniestria are in a horrible position. They are trapped between Ukraine and Moldova with no obvious supply route back to Russia. There just aren't enough of them to invade anybody else really, and just holding on in Transdniestria without outside help looks very iffy to me. Before the war, they could be supplied by air, but right now flying over Ukraine isn't a good idea. As a distraction to Ukraine and a way to tie down forces, it may kind of make sense, but I wouldn't want to be one of those 1800.

I don't think those 1,800 troops are all Russians per se.  I think all but a tiny fraction are ethnic Moldovans who live in Transnistria but who were granted Russian passports.  Ukraine has refused transport of Russian soldiers since 2015.  The Transnistrian army is 4,500 to 7,500 troops. Moldova itself only has 6,000 troops.  Russia provides free natural gas to Transnistria and supplements the pensions of older folks.  Transnistrians are largely Russian speakers.  Russia's annexation of Crimea transformed the Moldovan orientation from Russia to Western Europe and Moldova signed a free trade agreement with the EU in 2014 (though they don't have NATO plans).  As a result of the Crimean annexation, the contraband routes through Transnistria came to a halt (it was had been used to smuggle for nearly three decades).  70%+ of Transnistrian exports go to Western Europe.

Two days ago, Russia said they wanted to avoid war with Moldova. Therefore, war with Moldova is imminent.