[Goose]

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Ukraine is trading space for time. Making Russia grind out small advances while suffering heavy losses is good strategy. Russia gaining minimal territory while not encircling or gaining any major strategic objectives will only wear them out more quickly and enable Ukrainian counter offensives once the balance of forces shift in their favor.

Maybe so, but they are also trading lives for time. It is a hard position to be in. Hopefully the exchange ratio is enough in their favor that Russia runs out of bodies before Ukraine does. We don't have much visibility into that. Some of the reports are encouraging, but obviously Ukraine is mostly reporting success and minimizing failures, as they should.

Russia might also be utilizing a Verdun-like strategy where they are relying on their superiority in artillery and tactical air to grind up the Ukrainian forces. Politically, Ukraine can't retreat unilaterally. This fact fixes their forces in place. The Russian's only need to make credible thrusts to keep the Ukrainians in place. Pound them with indirect fire, cause casualties. They can't do the same because they lack the weapons to do so. Russia just has to be careful NOT to attack too much and create their own casualties. This is an attrition battle Russia might reasonably believe they can win. It is not clear that the artillery being sent to Ukraine is sufficient to avoid this situation, as the US (and therefore NATO) largely relies on tac air to do the grinding.

Russia is stuck. They ideally would have waited to reconstitute forces for one big offensive. But with Western aid coming in and fresh Ukrainian manpower getting trained the clock is ticking, let alone whether there was any arbitrary directives from above.

Russia's real problems will start in a couple months once they are really hurting for men and arms. Ukraine will still have plenty of both, and the morale advantage as well. No way can Russia land a knockout blow before then.

Actually, Russia's objective in this case (IMHO) is to pound away until they breach the line someplace and then to pour massive armor forces through the breach. The problem for them is they don't seem to be able to move rapidly enough to take advantage of such a breach. That said, we haven't seen them in that position yet. The Ukrainians have always been able to seal off any potential holes. IMHO it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Russia can pull this off. It is also not clear that they can, or that they will get the chance.

Maybe once Russian offensive potential is exhausted, he annexes every new piece of territory, and says they'll nuke anyone who tries to take it back.  But he won't have gotten much for the blood and treasure wasted.

That "anyone" will be Ukraine, because under those conditions they would keep fighting. What happens then is Pandora's box. Let's hope Putin is ousted before it comes to that.

[Goose]

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Ukraine is trading space for time. Making Russia grind out small advances while suffering heavy losses is good strategy. Russia gaining minimal territory while not encircling or gaining any major strategic objectives will only wear them out more quickly and enable Ukrainian counter offensives once the balance of forces shift in their favor.

Maybe so, but they are also trading lives for time. It is a hard position to be in. Hopefully the exchange ratio is enough in their favor that Russia runs out of bodies before Ukraine does. We don't have much visibility into that. Some of the reports are encouraging, but obviously Ukraine is mostly reporting success and minimizing failures, as they should.

Russia might also be utilizing a Verdun-like strategy where they are relying on their superiority in artillery and tactical air to grind up the Ukrainian forces. Politically, Ukraine can't retreat unilaterally. This fact fixes their forces in place. The Russian's only need to make credible thrusts to keep the Ukrainians in place. Pound them with indirect fire, cause casualties. They can't do the same because they lack the weapons to do so. Russia just has to be careful NOT to attack too much and create their own casualties. This is an attrition battle Russia might reasonably believe they can win. It is not clear that the artillery being sent to Ukraine is sufficient to avoid this situation, as the US (and therefore NATO) largely relies on tac air to do the grinding.

Russia is stuck. They ideally would have waited to reconstitute forces for one big offensive. But with Western aid coming in and fresh Ukrainian manpower getting trained the clock is ticking, let alone whether there was any arbitrary directives from above.

Russia's real problems will start in a couple months once they are really hurting for men and arms. Ukraine will still have plenty of both, and the morale advantage as well. No way can Russia land a knockout blow before then.

Actually, Russia's objective in this case (IMHO) is to pound away until they breach the line someplace and then to pour massive armor forces through the breach. The problem for them is they don't seem to be able to move rapidly enough to take advantage of such a breach. That said, we haven't seen them in that position yet. The Ukrainians have always been able to seal off any potential holes. IMHO it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Russia can pull this off. It is also not clear that they can, or that they will get the chance.

Maybe once Russian offensive potential is exhausted, he annexes every new piece of territory, and says they'll nuke anyone who tries to take it back.  But he won't have gotten much for the blood and treasure wasted.

That "anyone" will be Ukraine, because under those conditions they would keep fighting. What happens then is Pandora's box. Let's hope Putin is ousted before it comes to that.