[Goose]

Unfortunately it appears Russia is fighting much better in the Donbas than they did previously, probably because they have a better understanding of the Ukrainian "enemy" and because they understand their own limitations. Russia is not attempting broad armored thrusts that cover tens of miles a day. They are just banging on the front lines and forcing the Ukrainians back. Probably if they can create a major breach they would become more aggressive, but so far that hasn't happened.

This lower pace of operations and the proximity to Russia itself has allowed the Russian logistics to hold up adequately. Russia is moving anti-aircraft BTGs forward into the newly occupied areas. The Russians appear to be intending a "ground and pound" offensive for as long as it takes. The Ukrainians are inflicting losses on the Russians but are also suffering losses themselves. We don't actually know much about that balance. Right now, it would appear Ukraine is slowly being expelled from the Donbas. How long Russia and Ukraine can each keep this up is unknown.

Ukraine needs to integrate the new weapons they are receiving to allow them to chew up the Russian rear areas and support troops. They need the ability to project power. Whether they will get enough of this soon enough is unknowable. It is difficult to absorb new weapons in the middle of a war, but it has been done before. Russia in theory has a more powerful armored offensive striking force than Ukraine, but so far they really aren't using it. This gives Ukraine more time to strengthen it's forces. Hopefully Russia will run out of troops or Ukraine will develop the ability to chew them up. It could take a while either way. This May 9th stuff right now looks way out of possibility, unless there is a meltdown someplace soon.

[Goose]

Unfortunately it appears Russia is fighting much better in the Donbas than they did previously, probably because they have a better understanding of the Ukrainian "enemy" and because they understand their own limitations. Russia is not attempting broad armored thrusts that cover tens of miles a day. They are just banging on the front lines and forcing the Ukrainians back. Probably if they can create a major breach they would become more aggressive, but so far that hasn't happened.

This lower pace of operations and the proximity to Russia itself has allowed the Russian logistics to hold up adequately. Russia is moving anti-aircraft BTGs forward into the newly occupied areas. The Russians appear to be intending a "ground and pound" offensive for as long as it takes. The Ukrainians are inflicting losses on the Russians but are also suffering losses themselves. We don't actually know much about that balance. Right now, it would appear Ukraine is slowly being expelled from the Donbas. How long Russia and Ukraine can each keep this up is unknown.

Ukraine needs to integrate the new weapons they are receiving to allow them to chew up the Russian rear areas and support troops. They need the ability to project power. Whether they will get enough of this soon enough is unknowable. It is difficult to absorb new weapons in the middle of a war, but it has been done before. Russia in theory has a more powerful armored offensive striking force than Ukraine, but so far they really aren't using it. This gives Ukraine more time to strengthen it's forces. Hopefully Russia will run out of troops or Ukraine will develop the ability to chew them up. It could take a while either way. This May 9th stuff right now looks way out of possibility, unless there is a meltdown someplace soon.