04-27-2022, 06:55 AM
As the fighting in Ukraine rages on, it really is time to recognize and admit we are at the end of the beginning of a much wider conflict that is basically Russia against NATO. It seems safe to say China and India are just sitting it out, and that will probably remain the case for a while. They both loathe the idea of having no choice but to pick a side. Hopefully they won't. I don't have enough information and insight to muster an opinion on whether such a time will come or not.
So back to Russia. The thread below is a reminder of what NATO faces, but let me address the bigger picture. Today I was watching a report from DW on the Russian decision to block oil and gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria, then another one about Germany's moves on the topic. One of my takeaways was how pipelines have been built that move oil and gas in Europe bypassing Russian sources. While watching the report, it occurred to me Russia could very well destroy these pipelines with some kind of sabotage, and it would make all the sense in the world to do it if you are Russia.
It was yet another reminder of how desperate the world should be to redouble its efforts toward renewable/nuclear energy. The economic and environmental disasters that cutting pipelines would create are almost incalculable. Given the atrocities Putin's regime has been good with in Ukraine, I can't imagine he has much concern for any form of life anywhere. We just shouldn't be fighting wars over and be compromised in so many ways by oil and gas dependence for so many reasons.
It seems to me, NATO must be re-thinking its approach from defense to offense vis-a-vis Russia. Because it seems highly unlikely Russia is going to lose in Ukraine without taking liberties with NATO countries. Putin's core belief is NATO will not respond to a Russian attack on a NATO country when war with Russia would be the result. But Russia is going to cause havoc for the west that is going to make our lives very unpleasant unless its government is toppled. That's what history tells us. That's what logic tells us. That's what the available evidence to date is telling us.
I think NATO knows this and is arming Ukraine to the extent it is, not to save Ukraine, as much as to degrade Russia's ability to go beyond Ukraine. Because if Russia ran through Ukraine, it would have been able to take Moldova easily, been emboldened, and then gone after Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania. Putin would count on no public support in NATO countries to go to war with Russia over piddly Baltic states, even if in NATO, and effectively would have broken the alliance.
The bad news for Putin is after the world has seen what Russia has done in Ukraine, it is now seen as a great villain that must be stopped, so the public will support NATO war with Russia if Russia pushes that envelope. If the guy in this thread represents Russian thinking, that envelope will be pushed. A lot of projection and all propaganda here, but it provides perspective on what we are up against.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1519222930273619968[/tweet]
So back to Russia. The thread below is a reminder of what NATO faces, but let me address the bigger picture. Today I was watching a report from DW on the Russian decision to block oil and gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria, then another one about Germany's moves on the topic. One of my takeaways was how pipelines have been built that move oil and gas in Europe bypassing Russian sources. While watching the report, it occurred to me Russia could very well destroy these pipelines with some kind of sabotage, and it would make all the sense in the world to do it if you are Russia.
It was yet another reminder of how desperate the world should be to redouble its efforts toward renewable/nuclear energy. The economic and environmental disasters that cutting pipelines would create are almost incalculable. Given the atrocities Putin's regime has been good with in Ukraine, I can't imagine he has much concern for any form of life anywhere. We just shouldn't be fighting wars over and be compromised in so many ways by oil and gas dependence for so many reasons.
It seems to me, NATO must be re-thinking its approach from defense to offense vis-a-vis Russia. Because it seems highly unlikely Russia is going to lose in Ukraine without taking liberties with NATO countries. Putin's core belief is NATO will not respond to a Russian attack on a NATO country when war with Russia would be the result. But Russia is going to cause havoc for the west that is going to make our lives very unpleasant unless its government is toppled. That's what history tells us. That's what logic tells us. That's what the available evidence to date is telling us.
I think NATO knows this and is arming Ukraine to the extent it is, not to save Ukraine, as much as to degrade Russia's ability to go beyond Ukraine. Because if Russia ran through Ukraine, it would have been able to take Moldova easily, been emboldened, and then gone after Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania. Putin would count on no public support in NATO countries to go to war with Russia over piddly Baltic states, even if in NATO, and effectively would have broken the alliance.
The bad news for Putin is after the world has seen what Russia has done in Ukraine, it is now seen as a great villain that must be stopped, so the public will support NATO war with Russia if Russia pushes that envelope. If the guy in this thread represents Russian thinking, that envelope will be pushed. A lot of projection and all propaganda here, but it provides perspective on what we are up against.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1519222930273619968[/tweet]