[BostonCard]

The hit to German GDP of giving up Russian gas is estimated to be 1.3% over the next two years. https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/13/economy/g...index.html

I think you underestimate the degree to which Russia’s invasion of Ukraine represents the European breaking point. Hopefully we never find out what happens if Russia fires a missile at a NATO country, but I think the calculus of confronting Russia has materially changed. The response has not been similar to the muted western response to the annexation of Crimea, because unlike Crimea, which had previously been Russian territory and had many Russian speakers who didn’t want to be part of Ukraine, one could not twist oneself in knots to justify the invasion.

The list of things that was unthinkable in January 2022 has actually happened:
Germany shutting down Nordstream II after construction was already finished.
Germany getting its military expenditure to NATO requirements (2%), this year
Sweden and Finland applying to join NATO (hasn’t happened yet, but is imminent)
Germany giving offensive weapons to an active combatant (as recently as February, Germany was being made fun of for offering helmets to Ukraine, and was refusing third countries giving German-made equipment to Ukraine)
Belgium reversing its plan to decommission its nuclear power plants by 2025 (sadly, Germany has not reversed course on its planned closures by the end of the year)
The US, And NATO countries giving Ukraine “offensive” weaponry (tanks, artillery, rockets, long-range drones, and it sounds like, even aircraft).
US and EU cutting a sizable number of Russian banks from SWIFT
US and EU freezing Russian assets
UK actually going after Russian oligarchs, including forcing Roman Abramovich to sell off Chelsea.
US sharing real-time intelligence with Ukraine

Basically, at this point, the only red line that remains is actually entering the fight nad shooting at the Russians. An attack on a NATO country would probably break that taboo, and while we probably won’t see Polish tanks rolling into the Donbas, NATO could start flying sortees into Ukrainian airspace (probably the West at first, but slowly expanding), and special forces on the ground directing Ukrainian firepower in much the same way that Americans worked with the Kurds to defeat ISIS without being directly involved.

BC

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Fascinating thread about the Russian army productivity or lack thereof…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1517323375521284097?s=21&t=NUOArwd8FhhKg26e05pVPw[/tweet]

Key quote…

In contrast, the Russian Army in all its incarnations until the late 1990's always acted as if "There's more conscripts where that came from, comrade."

While the nostalgia for the Red Army the Putin Regime had blinded it to the demographic realities

BC

[BostonCard]

The hit to German GDP of giving up Russian gas is estimated to be 1.3% over the next two years. https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/13/economy/g...index.html

I think you underestimate the degree to which Russia’s invasion of Ukraine represents the European breaking point. Hopefully we never find out what happens if Russia fires a missile at a NATO country, but I think the calculus of confronting Russia has materially changed. The response has not been similar to the muted western response to the annexation of Crimea, because unlike Crimea, which had previously been Russian territory and had many Russian speakers who didn’t want to be part of Ukraine, one could not twist oneself in knots to justify the invasion.

The list of things that was unthinkable in January 2022 has actually happened:
Germany shutting down Nordstream II after construction was already finished.
Germany getting its military expenditure to NATO requirements (2%), this year
Sweden and Finland applying to join NATO (hasn’t happened yet, but is imminent)
Germany giving offensive weapons to an active combatant (as recently as February, Germany was being made fun of for offering helmets to Ukraine, and was refusing third countries giving German-made equipment to Ukraine)
Belgium reversing its plan to decommission its nuclear power plants by 2025 (sadly, Germany has not reversed course on its planned closures by the end of the year)
The US, And NATO countries giving Ukraine “offensive” weaponry (tanks, artillery, rockets, long-range drones, and it sounds like, even aircraft).
US and EU cutting a sizable number of Russian banks from SWIFT
US and EU freezing Russian assets
UK actually going after Russian oligarchs, including forcing Roman Abramovich to sell off Chelsea.
US sharing real-time intelligence with Ukraine

Basically, at this point, the only red line that remains is actually entering the fight nad shooting at the Russians. An attack on a NATO country would probably break that taboo, and while we probably won’t see Polish tanks rolling into the Donbas, NATO could start flying sortees into Ukrainian airspace (probably the West at first, but slowly expanding), and special forces on the ground directing Ukrainian firepower in much the same way that Americans worked with the Kurds to defeat ISIS without being directly involved.

BC

---

Fascinating thread about the Russian army productivity or lack thereof…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1517323375521284097?s=21&t=NUOArwd8FhhKg26e05pVPw[/tweet]

Key quote…

In contrast, the Russian Army in all its incarnations until the late 1990's always acted as if "There's more conscripts where that came from, comrade."

While the nostalgia for the Red Army the Putin Regime had blinded it to the demographic realities

BC