[Goose]

Goose, You know a lot more about the military details than me, but I believe you misjudge Poland and what they would do in response to an attack on them by Russia. An attack on a supply line: you might be right. An attack on a Polish city? A different story. Remember the response to 9/11? We spent 20 years and trillions responding to that. You think Poland is just going to sit back and accept an attack on one of their cities? The hatred of Russia there is palpable and I believe they would like nothing more than a good excuse to get more involved. You suggest Poland can't take on Russia alone, but it wouldn't be alone. Russia already has its hands full against Ukraine and the West is already ramping up supplies against Russia. And whether or not Article 5 is invoked, I suspect an attack on a Polish city would result in an escalation of aid and involvement by NATO members.

Maybe I'm wrong. My intuition is that it would be a of immense proportions mistake for Putin and he is not dumb enough to do that.

My wife is of Polish extraction (2nd generation), so I am quite aware of how "focused" they can be. I agree that the Polish people would be furious. However, when it comes to starting a war, the divisions inside NATO about how much risk is acceptable become a big issue. The government of Poland has also had some significant policy issues with the EU that have not been resolved. I am not sure the Polish politicians are up to matching the public's sentiment, just as the German politicians are clearly not on the same page as their people.

I don't see the leadership that matches or even approaches a Zelenskyy, and to start a war generally you need that. I see more Neville Chamberlain than I do Winston Churchill. Most people in Europe are scared of war, as they should be. Their cities have been bombed and shelled, ours have not. Many of the "between lands" states have a long and painful history of suffering greatly in war, and the cultural memory of that persists. If the war is a "war of choice", not one they absolutely must fight, most of these states will chose not to fight.  Indeed, I could be wrong about that, but I think it probable.

Indeed, it is arguable that Germany, once a strong European power and not a "between lands" state, is right now incapable of fighting, if you believe their military leadership. Granted, they rate a tank with a burned out taillight as "not combat ready", but there is some truth in what their military is saying.

Putin is only going to do something like this if he thinks aid from the West is the difference between winning and losing. His alternative would be a nuclear strike somewhere in Ukraine. Neither of these things is without risk, but unlike you I do not think Putin is "smart enough" to not do it. Of the two, IMHO going nuclear is more risky and would be the next option if plan A failed. If he thinks there is no other path to victory, I fully expect he will start down that path. Hopefully, Putin is removed and we don't get to find out.

[Goose]

Goose, You know a lot more about the military details than me, but I believe you misjudge Poland and what they would do in response to an attack on them by Russia. An attack on a supply line: you might be right. An attack on a Polish city? A different story. Remember the response to 9/11? We spent 20 years and trillions responding to that. You think Poland is just going to sit back and accept an attack on one of their cities? The hatred of Russia there is palpable and I believe they would like nothing more than a good excuse to get more involved. You suggest Poland can't take on Russia alone, but it wouldn't be alone. Russia already has its hands full against Ukraine and the West is already ramping up supplies against Russia. And whether or not Article 5 is invoked, I suspect an attack on a Polish city would result in an escalation of aid and involvement by NATO members.

Maybe I'm wrong. My intuition is that it would be a of immense proportions mistake for Putin and he is not dumb enough to do that.

My wife is of Polish extraction (2nd generation), so I am quite aware of how "focused" they can be. I agree that the Polish people would be furious. However, when it comes to starting a war, the divisions inside NATO about how much risk is acceptable become a big issue. The government of Poland has also had some significant policy issues with the EU that have not been resolved. I am not sure the Polish politicians are up to matching the public's sentiment, just as the German politicians are clearly not on the same page as their people.

I don't see the leadership that matches or even approaches a Zelenskyy, and to start a war generally you need that. I see more Neville Chamberlain than I do Winston Churchill. Most people in Europe are scared of war, as they should be. Their cities have been bombed and shelled, ours have not. Many of the "between lands" states have a long and painful history of suffering greatly in war, and the cultural memory of that persists. If the war is a "war of choice", not one they absolutely must fight, most of these states will chose not to fight.  Indeed, I could be wrong about that, but I think it probable.

Indeed, it is arguable that Germany, once a strong European power and not a "between lands" state, is right now incapable of fighting, if you believe their military leadership. Granted, they rate a tank with a burned out taillight as "not combat ready", but there is some truth in what their military is saying.

Putin is only going to do something like this if he thinks aid from the West is the difference between winning and losing. His alternative would be a nuclear strike somewhere in Ukraine. Neither of these things is without risk, but unlike you I do not think Putin is "smart enough" to not do it. Of the two, IMHO going nuclear is more risky and would be the next option if plan A failed. If he thinks there is no other path to victory, I fully expect he will start down that path. Hopefully, Putin is removed and we don't get to find out.